Memphis Grizzlies at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points25
- Jake LaRaviaAssists5
- John KoncharRebounds10
Kings- Malik MonkPoints28
- De'Aaron FoxAssists10
- Domantas SabonisRebounds18
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game111–121
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime111–121
- OT11.1De'Aaron Fox makes free throw 2 of 2111–121
- OT11.1De'Aaron Fox makes free throw 1 of 2111–120
- OT11.1GG Jackson personal foul111–119
- OT12.2Kings Full timeout111–119
- OT22.1GG Jackson makes layup (Santi Aldama assists)111–119
- OT23.1Grizzlies Full timeout109–119
- OT23.1Malik Monk makes free throw 2 of 2109–119
- OT23.1Chris Duarte enters the game for Domantas Sabonis109–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q452.1Santi Aldama makes layupMEM 103 – 101 SAC · MEM 48% → 76% +29MEM 48% → 76%+29 pts
- Q446.1Malik Monk makes driving dunk (Keon Ellis assists)MEM 103 – 103 SAC · SAC 22% → 52% +30SAC 22% → 52%+30 pts
- Q433.1Desmond Bane makes driving layupMEM 105 – 103 SAC · MEM 48% → 82% +34MEM 48% → 82%+34 pts
- Q423.2De'Aaron Fox makes 16-foot pullup jump shotMEM 105 – 105 SAC · SAC 13% → 52% +39SAC 13% → 52%+39 pts
- OT3:35Malik Monk makes 11-foot two point shotMEM 107 – 107 SAC · SAC 40% → 55% +15SAC 40% → 55%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -7.5
- SAC 77%
- Fair odds
- SAC -211
- MEM +211 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 107.3 – 113.0 SAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1367 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +1 | +8 | MEM: Missing Lamar Stevens −3 · SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +214 Elo | SAC 77.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 66.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 67.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30105.8 | Points scored | 118.08th of 30 |
| 9th of 30112.3 | Points allowed | 117.120th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−6.5 | Margin | +0.916th of 30 |
| 30th of 30105.3 | Offense rating | 115.511th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.8 | Defense rating | 114.620th of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.0 | Pace | 101.212th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 19th of 3015–18 | Road vs home | 19–1314th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
+1 Elo- Lamar Stevens left abductor−3 Elo
Kings
+8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MEM 0–2 SAC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.