New Orleans Pelicans at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints36
- CJ McCollumAssists7
- Naji MarshallRebounds8
Pistons- Chimezie MetuPoints17
- Malachi FlynnAssists4
- James WisemanRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–101
- Q416.1Trey Murphy III makes free throw 2 of 2114–101
- Q416.1Trey Murphy III makes free throw 1 of 2113–101
- Q416.1Marcus Sasser shooting foul112–101
- Q426.1Naji Marshall offensive rebound112–101
- Q428.1Jeremiah Robinson-Earl misses driving layup112–101
- Q434.1Naji Marshall offensive rebound112–101
- Q437.1Trey Murphy III misses 28-foot three point jumper112–101
- Q455.1James Wiseman makes 3-foot dunk112–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:31Jonas Valanciunas makes 3-foot two point shot (Zion Williamson assists)NO 2 – 0 DET · NO 73% → 76% +3NO 73% → 76%+3 pts
- Q110:07CJ McCollum makes 27-foot running pullup jump shotNO 5 – 0 DET · NO 76% → 81% +5NO 76% → 81%+5 pts
- Q16:56Jonas Valanciunas makes 4-foot hook shot (Trey Murphy III assists)NO 11 – 6 DET · NO 77% → 81% +3NO 77% → 81%+3 pts
- Q15:04Naji Marshall makes 27-foot three point jumper (Larry Nance Jr. assists)NO 17 – 6 DET · NO 85% → 88% +4NO 85% → 88%+4 pts
- Q13:37Naji Marshall makes 26-foot three point jumper (Larry Nance Jr. assists)NO 20 – 10 DET · NO 83% → 87% +4NO 83% → 87%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pelicans 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -9
- NO 81%
- Fair odds
- NO -275
- DET +275 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 115.5 – 107.8 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1589 | 1350 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +16 | −31 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · DET: Missing Cade Cunningham −17, Jalen Duren −11 (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +249 Elo | NO 80.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 72.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 73.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30115.8 | Points scored | 111.424th of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.5 | Points allowed | 120.226th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+5.2 | Margin | −8.828th of 30 |
| 9th of 30116.0 | Offense rating | 108.825th of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.7 | Defense rating | 117.426th of 30 |
| 18th of 3099.6 | Pace | 101.98th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 3023–14 | Road vs home | 7–3029th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
−31 Elo- Cade Cunningham left knee injury management−17 Elo
- Jalen Duren back spasms−11 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NO 1–0 DET in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.