Boston Celtics at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints33
- Derrick WhiteAssists11
- Derrick WhiteRebounds8
Pistons- James WisemanPoints24
- Marcus SasserAssists7
- James WisemanRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game129–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter129–102
- Q410.1Neemias Queta makes 3-foot dunk129–102
- Q410.1Neemias Queta offensive rebound127–102
- Q411.1Jordan Walsh misses 23-foot three point jumper127–102
- Q432.1Tosan Evbuomwan makes driving layup (Marcus Sasser assists)127–102
- Q457.1JD Davison makes 28-foot three point jumper (Neemias Queta assists)127–100
- Q41:16Tosan Evbuomwan makes free throw 2 of 2124–100
- Q41:16Tosan Evbuomwan makes free throw 1 of 2124–99
- Q41:16Jordan Walsh shooting foul124–98
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:00Troy Brown Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Marcus Sasser assists)BOS 28 – 31 DET · DET 26% → 33% +6DET 26% → 33%+6 pts
- Q133.2Troy Brown Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Marcus Sasser assists)BOS 28 – 34 DET · DET 33% → 39% +7DET 33% → 39%+7 pts
- Q10.0Payton Pritchard makes 25-foot three pointer (Oshae Brissett assists)BOS 32 – 34 DET · BOS 63% → 69% +7BOS 63% → 69%+7 pts
- Q210:58Jared Rhoden makes 26-foot three point jumper (Marcus Sasser assists)BOS 35 – 37 DET · DET 25% → 31% +6DET 25% → 31%+6 pts
- Q210:44Payton Pritchard makes 23-foot three point jumper (Luke Kornet assists)BOS 38 – 37 DET · BOS 69% → 75% +6BOS 69% → 75%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -11.5
- BOS 86%
- Fair odds
- BOS -322
- DET +322 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 118.5 – 109.6 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1718 | 1355 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +3 | +9 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +321 Elo | BOS 86.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 74.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 76.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30121.0 | Points scored | 111.624th of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.5 | Points allowed | 120.126th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+11.5 | Margin | −8.528th of 30 |
| 1st of 30121.0 | Offense rating | 108.925th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30109.5 | Defense rating | 117.226th of 30 |
| 19th of 3099.3 | Pace | 102.08th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 1st of 3023–11 | Road vs home | 7–2929th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
+9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 2–0 DET in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.