Indiana Pacers at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints25
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists9
- Isaiah JacksonRebounds11
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints23
- Cade CunninghamAssists10
- Jalen DurenRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–103
- Q48.1shot clock turnover122–103
- Q430.0Ben Sheppard defensive rebound122–103
- Q432.1Malachi Flynn misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot122–103
- Q442.0Kendall Brown makes 3-foot dunk (Isaiah Jackson assists)122–103
- Q445.0Malachi Flynn bad pass (James Johnson steals)120–103
- Q458.1Isaiah Jackson makes free throw 2 of 2120–103
- Q458.1Pacers offensive team rebound119–103
- Q458.1Isaiah Jackson misses free throw 1 of 2119–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:48Marcus Sasser makes 26-foot three point jumper (Evan Fournier assists)IND 29 – 27 DET · DET 29% → 36% +7DET 29% → 36%+7 pts
- Q210:00T.J. McConnell makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ben Sheppard assists)IND 34 – 29 DET · IND 64% → 71% +7IND 64% → 71%+7 pts
- Q28:25Ben Sheppard makes 23-foot three point jumper (T.J. McConnell assists)IND 37 – 31 DET · IND 66% → 73% +7IND 66% → 73%+7 pts
- Q24:46Aaron Nesmith makes 26-foot three point jumper (Myles Turner assists)IND 48 – 43 DET · IND 64% → 71% +7IND 64% → 71%+7 pts
- Q22:02Andrew Nembhard makes 23-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)IND 54 – 50 DET · IND 61% → 69% +8IND 61% → 69%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pacers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -4
- IND 66%
- Fair odds
- IND -157
- DET +157 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 120.6 – 117.1 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1364 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +7 | +12 | IND: Stronger than its recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +118 Elo | IND 66.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 60.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 61.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30122.6 | Points scored | 111.724th of 30 |
| 28th of 30121.0 | Points allowed | 120.126th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.7 | Margin | −8.428th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.9 | Offense rating | 109.025th of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.3 | Defense rating | 117.226th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30103.9 | Pace | 101.98th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 15th of 3017–16 | Road vs home | 7–2829th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
IND 3–0 DET in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.