Detroit Pistons at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Jaden IveyPoints21
- Marcus SasserAssists6
- Jalen DurenRebounds9
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints31
- Derrick WhiteAssists10
- Derrick WhiteRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game94–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter94–119
- Q418.0shot clock turnover94–119
- Q442.0James Wiseman makes free throw 2 of 294–119
- Q442.0Malachi Flynn enters the game for Jaden Ivey93–119
- Q442.0James Wiseman makes free throw 1 of 293–119
- Q442.0Oshae Brissett shooting foul92–119
- Q454.1Jaden Springer makes 9-foot pullup jump shot (Jordan Walsh assists)92–119
- Q457.1Jordan Walsh offensive rebound92–117
- Q41:00Svi Mykhailiuk misses 29-foot three point jumper92–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:52Stanley Umude makes 22-foot three point shot (Jaden Ivey assists)DET 5 – 3 BOS · DET 15% → 19% +4DET 15% → 19%+4 pts
- Q18:22Isaiah Stewart makes 27-foot three point jumper (Marcus Sasser assists)DET 10 – 7 BOS · DET 17% → 21% +4DET 17% → 21%+4 pts
- Q17:36Kristaps Porzingis makes 26-foot three point jumper (Derrick White assists)DET 10 – 12 BOS · BOS 82% → 86% +4BOS 82% → 86%+4 pts
- Q16:06Jaylen Brown makes 24-foot three point jumper (Payton Pritchard assists)DET 14 – 15 BOS · BOS 80% → 84% +4BOS 80% → 84%+4 pts
- Q14:13Derrick White makes 27-foot three pointer (Svi Mykhailiuk assists)DET 16 – 18 BOS · BOS 81% → 85% +4BOS 81% → 85%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -14.5
- BOS 91%
- Fair odds
- BOS -542
- DET +542 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 108.4 – 121.2 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1367 | 1714 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | BOS and DET on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −22 | +1 | DET: Missing Cade Cunningham −21, Simone Fontecchio −3 · BOS: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +405 Elo | BOS 91.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 83.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 84.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30112.0 | Points scored | 121.02nd of 30 |
| 26th of 30120.1 | Points allowed | 109.66th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−8.1 | Margin | +11.41st of 30 |
| 25th of 30109.2 | Offense rating | 120.81st of 30 |
| 26th of 30117.1 | Defense rating | 109.42nd of 30 |
| 8th of 30102.0 | Pace | 99.419th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 30th of 305–27 | Road vs home | 30–31st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
−22 Elo- Cade Cunningham left knee injury management−21 Elo
- Simone Fontecchio left great toe hyperextension−3 Elo
Celtics
+1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 0–1 BOS in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.