Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Damian LillardPoints32
- Damian LillardAssists6
- Bobby PortisRebounds15
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints31
- Derrick WhiteAssists8
- Jayson TatumRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–122
- Q41.0Damian Lillard makes 30-foot three pointer119–122
- Q46.1Jayson Tatum makes free throw 2 of 2116–122
- Q46.1Pat Connaughton enters the game for Khris Middleton116–121
- Q46.1Jayson Tatum makes free throw 1 of 2116–121
- Q46.1Khris Middleton personal take foul116–120
- Q47.1Patrick Beverley enters the game for Bobby Portis116–120
- Q47.1Payton Pritchard enters the game for Luke Kornet116–120
- Q47.1Derrick White enters the game for Kristaps Porzingis116–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:56Bobby Portis makes 27-foot three point jumper (Damian Lillard assists)MIL 107 – 110 BOS · MIL 7% → 20% +13MIL 7% → 20%+13 pts
- Q42:06Jayson Tatum makes free throw 1 of 2MIL 107 – 111 BOS · BOS 83% → 88% +6BOS 83% → 88%+6 pts
- Q41:05Damian Lillard makes 26-foot step back jumpshotMIL 112 – 116 BOS · MIL <1% → 6% +6MIL <1% → 6%+6 pts
- Q432.1Bobby Portis makes 10-foot driving floating jump shot (Damian Lillard assists)MIL 114 – 116 BOS · MIL 2% → 14% +12MIL 2% → 14%+12 pts
- Q420.1Jaylen Brown makes free throw 1 of 2MIL 114 – 117 BOS · BOS 91% → 97% +7BOS 91% → 97%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -12.5
- BOS 88%
- Fair odds
- BOS -448
- MIL +448 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 110.0 – 121.4 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1717 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −73 | +62 | MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BOS +345 Elo | BOS 88.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 80.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 81.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30120.7 | Points scored | 121.02nd of 30 |
| 21st of 30117.3 | Points allowed | 109.35th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+3.4 | Margin | +11.61st of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.5 | Offense rating | 120.91st of 30 |
| 18th of 30114.2 | Defense rating | 109.22nd of 30 |
| 6th of 30102.2 | Pace | 99.319th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 16th of 3017–17 | Road vs home | 31–31st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
−73 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+62 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 1–1 BOS in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.