Phoenix Suns at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Bradley BealPoints28
- Grayson AllenAssists8
- Devin BookerRebounds9
Bucks- Bobby PortisPoints31
- Damian LillardAssists16
- Bobby PortisRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game129–140
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter129–140
- Q40.1shot clock turnover129–140
- Q424.1David Roddy makes 1-foot two point shot129–140
- Q430.1Khris Middleton makes free throw 2 of 2127–140
- Q430.1Nassir Little enters the game for Kevin Durant127–139
- Q430.1David Roddy enters the game for Grayson Allen127–139
- Q430.1Drew Eubanks enters the game for Bradley Beal127–139
- Q430.1Ish Wainright enters the game for Devin Booker127–139
- Q430.1Bol Bol enters the game for Royce O'Neale127–139
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:06Bobby Portis makes 25-foot three point jumper (Khris Middleton assists)PHX 42 – 49 MIL · MIL 54% → 62% +7MIL 54% → 62%+7 pts
- Q26:54Damian Lillard makes 25-foot step back jumpshotPHX 47 – 55 MIL · MIL 58% → 65% +7MIL 58% → 65%+7 pts
- Q26:32Bobby Portis makes 28-foot three point jumper (Damian Lillard assists)PHX 49 – 58 MIL · MIL 60% → 68% +7MIL 60% → 68%+7 pts
- Q32:11Eric Gordon makes 30-foot three point jumper (Bradley Beal assists)PHX 92 – 100 MIL · PHX 17% → 25% +8PHX 17% → 25%+8 pts
- Q45:54Malik Beasley makes 22-foot three point jumper (Bobby Portis assists)PHX 115 – 125 MIL · MIL 84% → 92% +9MIL 84% → 92%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Suns 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -2.5
- PHX 61%
- Fair odds
- PHX -131
- MIL +131 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 116.8 – 114.7 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1553 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +18 | −80 | PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +76 Elo | PHX 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 56.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30116.8 | Points scored | 120.44th of 30 |
| 16th of 30114.2 | Points allowed | 117.121st of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.6 | Margin | +3.39th of 30 |
| 10th of 30115.5 | Offense rating | 117.25th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.0 | Defense rating | 113.916th of 30 |
| 15th of 30100.4 | Pace | 102.26th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 8th of 3018–14 | Road vs home | 26–74th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
+18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
−80 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHX 1–0 MIL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.