Oklahoma City Thunder at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Josh GiddeyPoints19
- Josh GiddeyAssists8
- Josh GiddeyRebounds9
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints30
- Khris MiddletonAssists10
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds19
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game93–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter93–118
- Q44.1shot clock turnover93–118
- Q426.1Andre Jackson Jr. defensive rebound93–118
- Q429.1Lindy Waters III misses 26-foot three point jumper93–118
- Q441.2Thunder defensive team rebound93–118
- Q441.2Danilo Gallinari misses 31-foot three point jumper93–118
- Q454.1Aaron Wiggins out of bounds bad pass turnover93–118
- Q41:03Chris Livingston makes two point shot (Thanasis Antetokounmpo assists)93–118
- Q41:07Cason Wallace bad pass (Danilo Gallinari steals)93–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:40Jalen Williams makes 26-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)OKC 29 – 31 MIL · OKC 35% → 42% +7OKC 35% → 42%+7 pts
- Q23:16Brook Lopez makes 29-foot three point jumper (Damian Lillard assists)OKC 35 – 44 MIL · MIL 68% → 75% +7MIL 68% → 75%+7 pts
- Q22:58Luguentz Dort makes 23-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 38 – 44 MIL · OKC 25% → 32% +7OKC 25% → 32%+7 pts
- Q22:28Josh Giddey makes 23-foot three point jumper (Gordon Hayward assists)OKC 41 – 44 MIL · OKC 31% → 39% +8OKC 31% → 39%+8 pts
- Q38:07Malik Beasley makes 23-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)OKC 49 – 57 MIL · MIL 68% → 76% +8MIL 68% → 76%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bucks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -0.5
- MIL 51%
- Fair odds
- MIL -114
- OKC +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 117.1 – 118.1 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1587 | 1558 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +30 | +33 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +10 Elo | MIL 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 53.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30120.7 | Points scored | 120.64th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.9 | Points allowed | 117.223rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+7.9 | Margin | +3.48th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.2 | Offense rating | 117.64th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.5 | Defense rating | 114.318th of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.4 | Pace | 102.07th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 30 |
| 4th of 3021–13 | Road vs home | 28–73rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
+33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.