Brooklyn Nets at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Mikal BridgesPoints24
- Dennis SchroderAssists9
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds9
Bucks- Damian LillardPoints30
- Damian LillardAssists12
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–115
- Q49.0Nic Claxton makes 1-foot dunk (Dennis Schroder assists)108–115
- Q415.1Malik Beasley makes free throw 2 of 2106–115
- Q415.1Malik Beasley makes free throw 1 of 2106–114
- Q415.1Mikal Bridges personal foul106–113
- Q417.1Cameron Johnson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cam Thomas assists)106–113
- Q426.0Bobby Portis makes free throw 2 of 2103–113
- Q426.0Bobby Portis makes free throw 1 of 2103–112
- Q426.0Nic Claxton shooting foul103–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:58Cameron Johnson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dennis Smith Jr. assists)BKN 88 – 87 MIL · BKN 33% → 49% +16BKN 33% → 49%+16 pts
- Q46:00Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 25-foot three point jumper (Damian Lillard assists)BKN 90 – 90 MIL · MIL 39% → 56% +17MIL 39% → 56%+17 pts
- Q44:49Damian Lillard makes 27-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)BKN 93 – 93 MIL · MIL 36% → 55% +19MIL 36% → 55%+19 pts
- Q42:17Mikal Bridges makes 28-foot three point jumper (Cameron Johnson assists)BKN 101 – 103 MIL · BKN 10% → 28% +18BKN 10% → 28%+18 pts
- Q41:37Malik Beasley makes 23-foot three point shot (Damian Lillard assists)BKN 101 – 106 MIL · MIL 74% → 93% +19MIL 74% → 93%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bucks 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -4.5
- MIL 68%
- Fair odds
- MIL -200
- BKN +200 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 109.9 – 115.2 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1441 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | MIL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −8 | +13 | BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +129 Elo | MIL 67.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 66.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 66.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30111.4 | Points scored | 120.74th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.9 | Points allowed | 117.322nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−2.5 | Margin | +3.39th of 30 |
| 21st of 30111.8 | Offense rating | 117.64th of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.4 | Defense rating | 114.319th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.0 | Pace | 102.16th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3010–23 | Road vs home | 27–74th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BKN 0–2 MIL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.