San Antonio Spurs at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Devin VassellPoints31
- Tre JonesAssists10
- Jeremy SochanRebounds9
Jazz- Collin SextonPoints26
- Collin SextonAssists9
- Taylor HendricksRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–111
- Q40.0Jazz offensive team rebound118–111
- Q40.0Taylor Hendricks misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot118–111
- Q43.2Devin Vassell makes free throw 2 of 2118–111
- Q43.2Spurs offensive team rebound117–111
- Q43.2Devin Vassell misses free throw 1 of 2117–111
- Q43.2Taylor Hendricks personal take foul117–111
- Q43.2Devin Vassell defensive rebound117–111
- Q47.0Jeremy Sochan blocks Taylor Hendricks 's 2-foot driving layup117–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:29Lauri Markkanen makes 25-foot three point jumper (Collin Sexton assists)SA 41 – 37 UTAH · UTAH 38% → 46% +8UTAH 38% → 46%+8 pts
- Q34:14Brice Sensabaugh makes 22-foot three point jumper (Keyonte George assists)SA 76 – 67 UTAH · UTAH 17% → 25% +8UTAH 17% → 25%+8 pts
- Q32:10Malaki Branham makes 25-foot three point jumper (Devin Vassell assists)SA 83 – 71 UTAH · SA 77% → 85% +8SA 77% → 85%+8 pts
- Q32.1Malaki Branham makes 25-foot three point jumper (Devin Vassell assists)SA 88 – 77 UTAH · SA 76% → 85% +9SA 76% → 85%+9 pts
- Q410:07Cedi Osman makes 23-foot three point shot (Malaki Branham assists)SA 96 – 85 UTAH · SA 79% → 87% +8SA 79% → 87%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jazz 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH -0.5
- UTAH 53%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -145
- SA +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 116.0 – 118.8 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1384 | 1379 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +6 | −8 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +18 Elo | UTAH 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 59.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 59.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30111.9 | Points scored | 116.611th of 30 |
| 25th of 30119.3 | Points allowed | 120.828th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−7.4 | Margin | −4.223rd of 30 |
| 27th of 30108.2 | Offense rating | 113.816th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30115.4 | Defense rating | 117.929th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30102.9 | Pace | 101.79th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 1–928th of 30 |
| 29th of 307–29 | Road vs home | 20–1618th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
−8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SA 0–2 UTAH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.