Phoenix Suns at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Devin BookerPoints36
- Kevin DurantAssists6
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds9
Spurs- Jeremy SochanPoints26
- Devin VassellAssists7
- Jeremy SochanRebounds18
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–104
- Q40.1Zach Collins defensive rebound102–104
- Q41.1Devin Booker misses 26-foot three point shot102–104
- Q45.1Devin Booker offensive rebound102–104
- Q49.2Kevin Durant misses 26-foot three point jumper102–104
- Q429.0Jeremy Sochan makes 26-foot three point jumper (Devin Vassell assists)102–104
- Q451.1Devin Booker makes free throw 2 of 2102–101
- Q451.1Devin Booker makes free throw 1 of 2101–101
- Q451.1Zach Collins shooting foul100–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:51Devin Booker makes 1-foot two point shotPHX 97 – 99 SA · PHX 24% → 39% +15PHX 24% → 39%+15 pts
- Q42:29Devin Booker makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Grayson Allen assists)PHX 100 – 99 SA · PHX 38% → 65% +27PHX 38% → 65%+27 pts
- Q451.1Devin Booker makes free throw 1 of 2PHX 101 – 101 SA · PHX 38% → 53% +15PHX 38% → 53%+15 pts
- Q451.1Devin Booker makes free throw 2 of 2PHX 102 – 101 SA · PHX 53% → 68% +15PHX 53% → 68%+15 pts
- Q429.0Jeremy Sochan makes 26-foot three point jumper (Devin Vassell assists)PHX 102 – 104 SA · SA 28% → 83% +56SA 28% → 83%+56 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Suns 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -8
- PHX 78%
- Fair odds
- PHX -286
- SA +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 119.3 – 111.3 SA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1560 | 1374 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +25 | −49 | PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups · SA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +224 Elo | PHX 78.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 73.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 74.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30117.3 | Points scored | 112.022nd of 30 |
| 16th of 30114.3 | Points allowed | 119.525th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+3.0 | Margin | −7.626th of 30 |
| 8th of 30116.1 | Offense rating | 108.327th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.1 | Defense rating | 115.623rd of 30 |
| 15th of 30100.3 | Pace | 103.03rd of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–824th of 30 |
| 11th of 3019–15 | Road vs home | 8–2727th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
+25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
−49 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHX 1–2 SA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.