Philadelphia 76ers at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Kelly Oubre Jr.Points18
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists7
- KJ MartinRebounds13
Suns- Grayson AllenPoints32
- Devin BookerAssists11
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–115
- Q47.1Paul Reed lost ball turnover (David Roddy steals)102–115
- Q418.0Nassir Little makes 24-foot three pointer (Isaiah Thomas assists)102–115
- Q424.1Jeff Dowtin Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2102–112
- Q424.1Jeff Dowtin Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2101–112
- Q424.1Ish Wainright shooting foul100–112
- Q425.1KJ Martin defensive rebound100–112
- Q429.0Kelly Oubre Jr. blocks Thaddeus Young 's 3-foot two point shot100–112
- Q435.0Paul Reed bad pass (Ish Wainright steals)100–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q211:25Buddy Hield makes 26-foot three pointer (Cameron Payne assists)PHI 26 – 23 PHX · PHI 33% → 40% +7PHI 33% → 40%+7 pts
- Q210:04Cameron Payne makes 27-foot step back jumpshot (KJ Martin assists)PHI 29 – 27 PHX · PHI 31% → 38% +7PHI 31% → 38%+7 pts
- Q29:00Cameron Payne makes 28-foot three point jumper (Kyle Lowry assists)PHI 32 – 27 PHX · PHI 38% → 46% +7PHI 38% → 46%+7 pts
- Q28:46Bol Bol makes 25-foot three point jumper (Bradley Beal assists)PHI 32 – 30 PHX · PHX 54% → 62% +7PHX 54% → 62%+7 pts
- Q27:14Bol Bol makes 23-foot three point jumper (Bradley Beal assists)PHI 32 – 35 PHX · PHX 66% → 73% +7PHX 66% → 73%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Suns 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -7
- PHX 75%
- Fair odds
- PHX -227
- PHI +227 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 109.1 – 115.3 PHX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −75 | +19 | PHI: Missing Tobias Harris −18 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +194 Elo | PHX 75.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 68.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 69.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30114.8 | Points scored | 116.911th of 30 |
| 9th of 30112.3 | Points allowed | 114.616th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.5 | Margin | +2.411th of 30 |
| 13th of 30114.9 | Offense rating | 115.79th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.4 | Defense rating | 113.413th of 30 |
| 18th of 3099.6 | Pace | 100.415th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 14th of 3017–15 | Road vs home | 21–1413th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
−75 Elo- Tobias Harris right ankle sprain−18 Elo
Suns
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 1–0 PHX in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.