Phoenix Suns at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Devin BookerPoints32
- Bradley BealAssists12
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds10
Spurs- Keldon JohnsonPoints14
- Tre JonesAssists5
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds5
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game131–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter131–106
- Q412.1Blake Wesley makes dunk131–106
- Q412.1Blake Wesley offensive rebound131–104
- Q413.1Sandro Mamukelashvili misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot131–104
- Q415.1Sandro Mamukelashvili offensive rebound131–104
- Q419.1Bol Bol blocks Dominick Barlow 's 5-foot two point shot131–104
- Q431.1Nassir Little makes 2-foot dunk (Thaddeus Young assists)131–104
- Q433.1Sandro Mamukelashvili lost ball turnover (Thaddeus Young steals)129–104
- Q438.1Thaddeus Young bad pass (Devonte' Graham steals)129–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:51Devin Booker makes 25-foot three pointerPHX 3 – 0 SA · PHX 68% → 74% +5PHX 68% → 74%+5 pts
- Q18:00Jusuf Nurkic makes 3-foot two point shot (Kevin Durant assists)PHX 9 – 6 SA · PHX 70% → 73% +4PHX 70% → 73%+4 pts
- Q17:10Kevin Durant makes 14-foot jumper (Bradley Beal assists)PHX 11 – 8 SA · PHX 70% → 73% +4PHX 70% → 73%+4 pts
- Q12:01Zach Collins makes 25-foot three point jumper (Malaki Branham assists)PHX 24 – 15 SA · SA 13% → 17% +4SA 13% → 17%+4 pts
- Q211:45Eric Gordon makes 26-foot three point jumper (Bradley Beal assists)PHX 29 – 17 SA · PHX 83% → 87% +4PHX 83% → 87%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Suns 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -6
- PHX 72%
- Fair odds
- PHX -218
- SA +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 118.0 – 112.1 SA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1384 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | SA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +19 | +12 | PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | PHX crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHX +166 Elo | PHX 72.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 68.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 68.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30117.1 | Points scored | 112.122nd of 30 |
| 16th of 30114.4 | Points allowed | 119.425th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.7 | Margin | −7.326th of 30 |
| 10th of 30115.9 | Offense rating | 108.327th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.3 | Defense rating | 115.422nd of 30 |
| 15th of 30100.4 | Pace | 103.03rd of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 13th of 3018–15 | Road vs home | 8–2627th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHX 0–2 SA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.