Atlanta Hawks at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Dejounte MurrayPoints29
- Dejounte MurrayAssists10
- Clint CapelaRebounds10
Suns- Devin BookerPoints30
- Bradley BealAssists9
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–128
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–128
- Q422.1Devin Booker makes 25-foot three point jumper (Bradley Beal assists)115–128
- Q445.1De'Andre Hunter makes free throw 2 of 2115–125
- Q445.1De'Andre Hunter makes free throw 1 of 2114–125
- Q445.1Grayson Allen shooting foul113–125
- Q41:00Devin Booker makes 23-foot three point jumper (Bradley Beal assists)113–125
- Q41:19Bradley Beal defensive rebound113–122
- Q41:23Vit Krejci misses 25-foot three point jumper113–122
- Q41:30De'Andre Hunter defensive rebound113–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:23Wesley Matthews makes 29-foot three point jumper (Vit Krejci assists)ATL 79 – 78 PHX · ATL 33% → 43% +10ATL 33% → 43%+10 pts
- Q34:43Eric Gordon makes 27-foot running pullup jump shot (Grayson Allen assists)ATL 79 – 83 PHX · PHX 64% → 73% +9PHX 64% → 73%+9 pts
- Q339.1De'Andre Hunter makes 26-foot three point jumper (Bogdan Bogdanovic assists)ATL 93 – 94 PHX · ATL 26% → 37% +11ATL 26% → 37%+11 pts
- Q411:38Eric Gordon makes 25-foot three point jumper (Royce O'Neale assists)ATL 93 – 99 PHX · PHX 70% → 80% +10PHX 70% → 80%+10 pts
- Q410:55Eric Gordon makes 29-foot three point jumper (Bradley Beal assists)ATL 95 – 102 PHX · PHX 74% → 83% +9PHX 74% → 83%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Suns 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -5.5
- PHX 70%
- Fair odds
- PHX -202
- ATL +202 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 114.7 – 120.1 PHX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | PHX on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −37 | +24 | ATL: Missing Trae Young −36 · PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | ATL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHX +150 Elo | PHX 70.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 66.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 66.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30119.0 | Points scored | 116.910th of 30 |
| 29th of 30121.1 | Points allowed | 114.416th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−2.0 | Margin | +2.510th of 30 |
| 11th of 30115.6 | Offense rating | 115.79th of 30 |
| 29th of 30117.5 | Defense rating | 113.213th of 30 |
| 4th of 30102.4 | Pace | 100.415th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 20th of 3013–21 | Road vs home | 22–1411th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
−37 Elo- Trae Young left finger−36 Elo
Suns
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 1–0 PHX in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.