Atlanta Hawks at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Jalen JohnsonPoints25
- Dejounte MurrayAssists10
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds9
Lakers- D'Angelo RussellPoints27
- D'Angelo RussellAssists10
- Anthony DavisRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–136
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–136
- Q422.0Jaxson Hayes makes 2-foot dunk105–136
- Q422.0Jaxson Hayes offensive rebound105–134
- Q422.2Max Christie misses driving floating jump shot105–134
- Q439.0Harry Giles III defensive rebound105–134
- Q442.1Vit Krejci misses 13-foot two point shot105–134
- Q457.1Bruno Fernando defensive rebound105–134
- Q41:00Maxwell Lewis misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot105–134
- Q41:12Bruno Fernando makes two point shot (Wesley Matthews assists)105–134
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:56Bogdan Bogdanovic makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dejounte Murray assists)ATL 5 – 0 LAL · ATL 30% → 36% +6ATL 30% → 36%+6 pts
- Q110:29Jalen Johnson makes 25-foot three point jumperATL 8 – 0 LAL · ATL 36% → 42% +6ATL 36% → 42%+6 pts
- Q19:50Bogdan Bogdanovic makes 23-foot three point jumper (Dejounte Murray assists)ATL 11 – 2 LAL · ATL 38% → 44% +6ATL 38% → 44%+6 pts
- Q15:59Dejounte Murray makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jalen Johnson assists)ATL 20 – 22 LAL · ATL 19% → 24% +5ATL 19% → 24%+5 pts
- Q27:30D'Angelo Russell makes 26-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)ATL 41 – 48 LAL · LAL 78% → 83% +5LAL 78% → 83%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lakers 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -6
- LAL 73%
- Fair odds
- LAL -280
- ATL +280 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 116.4 – 124.3 LAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | ATL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −16 | +24 | ATL: Missing Trae Young −30 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +170 Elo | LAL 72.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 73.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 73.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30119.3 | Points scored | 117.39th of 30 |
| 28th of 30120.8 | Points allowed | 117.623rd of 30 |
| 21st of 30−1.6 | Margin | −0.419th of 30 |
| 9th of 30115.8 | Offense rating | 113.717th of 30 |
| 27th of 30117.3 | Defense rating | 114.116th of 30 |
| 4th of 30102.4 | Pace | 102.35th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 20th of 3013–20 | Road vs home | 24–128th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
−16 Elo- Trae Young left finger−30 Elo
Lakers
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 1–0 LAL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.