Memphis Grizzlies at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points28
- Jordan GoodwinAssists5
- Santi AldamaRebounds13
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints31
- Victor WembanyamaAssists5
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game99–97
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter99–97
- Q40.0Spurs offensive team rebound99–97
- Q40.0Victor Wembanyama misses 29-foot three point jumper99–97
- Q41.0Spurs Full timeout99–97
- Q41.0Spurs Full timeout99–97
- Q41.0Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 7-foot pullup jump shot99–97
- Q418.1Grizzlies Full timeout97–97
- Q418.1Tre Jones makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jeremy Sochan assists)97–97
- Q422.0Scotty Pippen Jr. bad pass (Jeremy Sochan steals)97–94
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:36Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jordan Goodwin assists)MEM 83 – 78 SA · MEM 59% → 75% +16MEM 59% → 75%+16 pts
- Q43:14Victor Wembanyama makes 27-foot three point jumperMEM 85 – 83 SA · SA 9% → 36% +28SA 9% → 36%+28 pts
- Q42:55Jake LaRavia makes free throw 1 of 2MEM 88 – 83 SA · MEM 64% → 84% +20MEM 64% → 84%+20 pts
- Q418.1Tre Jones makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jeremy Sochan assists)MEM 97 – 97 SA · SA 3% → 51% +48SA 3% → 51%+48 pts
- Q41.0Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 7-foot pullup jump shotMEM 99 – 97 SA · MEM 50% → >99% +50MEM 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Spurs 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -4.5
- SA 68%
- Fair odds
- SA -140
- MEM +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 107.7 – 110.2 SA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1357 | 1391 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −23 | +12 | MEM: Missing Lamar Stevens −5 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | MEM crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | SA +129 Elo | SA 67.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 58.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30106.0 | Points scored | 112.321st of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.8 | Points allowed | 119.725th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−6.8 | Margin | −7.426th of 30 |
| 30th of 30105.4 | Offense rating | 108.527th of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.2 | Defense rating | 115.723rd of 30 |
| 16th of 3099.9 | Pace | 103.03rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 19th of 3015–20 | Road vs home | 8–2527th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−23 Elo- Lamar Stevens left adductor strain−5 Elo
Spurs
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MEM 2–0 SA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.