Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- GG JacksonPoints35
- DeJon JarreauAssists5
- DeJon JarreauRebounds10
Warriors- Jonathan KumingaPoints26
- Chris PaulAssists14
- Draymond GreenRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–137
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–137
- Q40.2shot clock turnover116–137
- Q424.0DeJon Jarreau defensive rebound116–137
- Q427.0Lester Quinones misses 29-foot three point pullup jump shot116–137
- Q435.1GG Jackson makes free throw 2 of 2116–137
- Q435.1GG Jackson makes free throw 1 of 2115–137
- Q435.1Gui Santos shooting foul114–137
- Q457.0Pat Spencer makes 3-foot dunk (Kevon Looney assists)114–137
- Q458.2Kevon Looney defensive rebound114–135
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q27:44Santi Aldama makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jaren Jackson Jr. assists)MEM 42 – 41 GS · MEM 29% → 36% +7MEM 29% → 36%+7 pts
- Q27:31Andrew Wiggins makes 23-foot three point jumper (Chris Paul assists)MEM 42 – 44 GS · GS 64% → 71% +7GS 64% → 71%+7 pts
- Q27:21Desmond Bane makes 29-foot three point jumper (DeJon Jarreau assists)MEM 45 – 44 GS · MEM 29% → 36% +7MEM 29% → 36%+7 pts
- Q26:39Moses Moody makes 24-foot three point jumper (Klay Thompson assists)MEM 47 – 49 GS · GS 64% → 71% +7GS 64% → 71%+7 pts
- Q21:54Jonathan Kuminga makes 26-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)MEM 58 – 61 GS · GS 65% → 72% +8GS 65% → 72%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Warriors 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -9
- GS 80%
- Fair odds
- GS -229
- MEM +229 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 106.9 – 113.2 GS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1363 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −2 | +16 | MEM: Missing Lamar Stevens −3 · GS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +245 Elo | GS 80.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 68.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 69.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30105.9 | Points scored | 118.37th of 30 |
| 10th of 30112.4 | Points allowed | 116.820th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−6.6 | Margin | +1.515th of 30 |
| 30th of 30105.2 | Offense rating | 115.212th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.8 | Defense rating | 113.815th of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.0 | Pace | 101.610th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 19th of 3015–19 | Road vs home | 17–1821st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−2 Elo- Lamar Stevens left adductor strain−3 Elo
Warriors
+16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MEM 1–1 GS in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.