Houston Rockets at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Jalen GreenPoints26
- Jalen GreenAssists6
- Amen ThompsonRebounds9
Timberwolves- Naz ReidPoints25
- Kyle AndersonAssists9
- Rudy GobertRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–113
- Q40.0Rockets offensive team rebound106–113
- Q40.0Jeff Green misses 22-foot three point shot106–113
- Q40.1Jeff Green offensive rebound106–113
- Q44.1Fred VanVleet misses 23-foot three point shot106–113
- Q46.1Anthony Edwards personal foul106–113
- Q411.1Anthony Edwards makes free throw 2 of 2106–113
- Q411.1Anthony Edwards makes free throw 1 of 2106–112
- Q411.1Jalen Green personal take foul106–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:01Fred VanVleet makes 26-foot step back jumpshot (Jalen Green assists)HOU 94 – 98 MIN · HOU 6% → 18% +12HOU 6% → 18%+12 pts
- Q42:45Naz Reid makes 26-foot three point jumper (Mike Conley assists)HOU 94 – 101 MIN · MIN 83% → 94% +12MIN 83% → 94%+12 pts
- Q42:28Jeff Green makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jabari Smith Jr. assists)HOU 97 – 101 MIN · HOU 5% → 16% +11HOU 5% → 16%+11 pts
- Q41:52Fred VanVleet makes 24-foot three pointerHOU 100 – 101 MIN · HOU 13% → 37% +24HOU 13% → 37%+24 pts
- Q41:35Mike Conley makes 9-foot driving floating jump shotHOU 100 – 103 MIN · MIN 63% → 82% +19MIN 63% → 82%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -4
- MIN 66%
- Fair odds
- MIN -163
- HOU +163 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 105.9 – 109.6 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1557 | 1632 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +4 | +5 | HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +112 Elo | MIN 65.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 61.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 61.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30114.2 | Points scored | 112.918th of 30 |
| 10th of 30112.6 | Points allowed | 106.21st of 30 |
| 16th of 30+1.6 | Margin | +6.63rd of 30 |
| 21st of 30112.2 | Offense rating | 113.616th of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.6 | Defense rating | 107.01st of 30 |
| 12th of 30100.9 | Pace | 98.623rd of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3012–24 | Road vs home | 26–105th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
+5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 0–2 MIN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.