Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints25
- Mike ConleyAssists8
- Rudy GobertRebounds12
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints32
- Reggie JacksonAssists10
- Nikola JokicRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–98
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–98
- Q41.1Wendell Moore Jr. defensive rebound111–98
- Q41.1Julian Strawther misses two point shot111–98
- Q46.1shot clock turnover111–98
- Q431.1Hunter Tyson makes 19-foot pullup jump shot (Jalen Pickett assists)111–98
- Q446.0Anthony Edwards makes free throw 2 of 2111–96
- Q446.0Luka Garza enters the game for Nickeil Alexander-Walker110–96
- Q446.0Leonard Miller enters the game for Rudy Gobert110–96
- Q446.0Josh Minott enters the game for Jaden McDaniels110–96
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:24Jaden McDaniels makes 24-foot three point jumper (Mike Conley assists)MIN 9 – 5 DEN · MIN 49% → 55% +6MIN 49% → 55%+6 pts
- Q19:05Michael Porter Jr. makes 25-foot step back jumpshot (Nikola Jokic assists)MIN 9 – 8 DEN · DEN 45% → 51% +6DEN 45% → 51%+6 pts
- Q16:56Anthony Edwards makes 1-foot dunk (Naz Reid assists)MIN 16 – 11 DEN · MIN 51% → 58% +7MIN 51% → 58%+7 pts
- Q16:42Reggie Jackson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)MIN 16 – 14 DEN · DEN 42% → 49% +7DEN 42% → 49%+7 pts
- Q16:02Aaron Gordon makes 22-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)MIN 19 – 18 DEN · DEN 44% → 51% +7DEN 44% → 51%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- DEN 49%
- Fair odds
- DEN -115
- MIN +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 105.0 – 106.1 DEN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1637 | 1593 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +1 | +5 | MIN: Usual rotation · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +4 Elo | MIN 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 53.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30113.1 | Points scored | 114.614th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.3 | Points allowed | 109.97th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+6.7 | Margin | +4.76th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.7 | Offense rating | 116.56th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.9 | Defense rating | 111.810th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3098.7 | Pace | 98.227th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 3024–13 | Road vs home | 29–72nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 1–1 DEN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.