Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Kevin DurantPoints30
- Devin BookerAssists9
- Kevin DurantRebounds13
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints22
- Nikola JokicAssists10
- Nikola JokicRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–97
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–97
- Q414.2Michael Porter Jr. makes two point shot104–97
- Q416.0Michael Porter Jr. offensive rebound104–95
- Q418.1Reggie Jackson misses 23-foot step back jumpshot104–95
- Q427.2Nuggets Full timeout104–95
- Q427.2Devin Booker makes free throw 2 of 2104–95
- Q427.2Devin Booker makes free throw 1 of 2103–95
- Q427.2Reggie Jackson personal take foul102–95
- Q429.1Reggie Jackson makes driving layup102–95
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:33Michael Porter Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Collin Gillespie assists)PHX 54 – 52 DEN · DEN 44% → 53% +9DEN 44% → 53%+9 pts
- Q35:12Nikola Jokic makes 26-foot three point jumper (Collin Gillespie assists)PHX 71 – 65 DEN · DEN 27% → 36% +9DEN 27% → 36%+9 pts
- Q33:26Devin Booker makes 24-foot three point shot (Grayson Allen assists)PHX 76 – 68 DEN · PHX 62% → 71% +10PHX 62% → 71%+10 pts
- Q32:43Eric Gordon makes 22-foot three point jumper (Grayson Allen assists)PHX 79 – 68 DEN · PHX 72% → 81% +9PHX 72% → 81%+9 pts
- Q329.0Reggie Jackson makes 26-foot step back jumpshot (Nikola Jokic assists)PHX 81 – 73 DEN · DEN 17% → 25% +9DEN 17% → 25%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -3
- DEN 62%
- Fair odds
- DEN -160
- PHX +160 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 110.8 – 114.3 DEN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1605 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +6 | +5 | PHX: Missing Jusuf Nurkic −17 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +88 Elo | DEN 62.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 61.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 61.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30117.1 | Points scored | 114.814th of 30 |
| 16th of 30114.1 | Points allowed | 110.07th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.9 | Margin | +4.86th of 30 |
| 10th of 30115.9 | Offense rating | 116.76th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.0 | Defense rating | 111.810th of 30 |
| 15th of 30100.3 | Pace | 98.227th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 9–12nd of 30 |
| 13th of 3019–16 | Road vs home | 29–62nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
+6 Elo- Jusuf Nurkic sprained right ankle−17 Elo
Nuggets
+5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHX 1–1 DEN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.