Memphis Grizzlies at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Lamar StevensPoints19
- Jaren Jackson Jr.Assists5
- Santi AldamaRebounds9
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints29
- Nikola JokicAssists8
- Nikola JokicRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–128
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–128
- Q414.0Jalen Pickett defensive rebound103–128
- Q417.1DeJon Jarreau misses 22-foot three point jumper103–128
- Q418.2DeJon Jarreau offensive rebound103–128
- Q421.0DeJon Jarreau misses free throw 1 of 1103–128
- Q421.0Hunter Tyson shooting foul103–128
- Q421.0DeJon Jarreau makes 2-foot two point shot103–128
- Q427.1DeJon Jarreau defensive rebound101–128
- Q430.1Jay Huff misses 25-foot three point jumper101–128
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:53Scotty Pippen Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Santi Aldama assists)MEM 4 – 6 DEN · MEM 26% → 31% +5MEM 26% → 31%+5 pts
- Q18:50Michael Porter Jr. makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot (Nikola Jokic assists)MEM 4 – 11 DEN · DEN 72% → 77% +5DEN 72% → 77%+5 pts
- Q17:20Santi Aldama makes 25-foot three point jumper (Scotty Pippen Jr. assists)MEM 9 – 15 DEN · MEM 19% → 24% +5MEM 19% → 24%+5 pts
- Q16:25Christian Braun makes 25-foot three pointer (Reggie Jackson assists)MEM 11 – 20 DEN · DEN 76% → 81% +5DEN 76% → 81%+5 pts
- Q11:28Justin Holiday makes 22-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)MEM 24 – 37 DEN · DEN 82% → 87% +4DEN 82% → 87%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -7.5
- DEN 77%
- Fair odds
- DEN -187
- MEM +187 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 103.2 – 107.9 DEN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1365 | 1597 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +23 | −21 | MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups · DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | DEN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +213 Elo | DEN 77.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 63.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 65.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30105.9 | Points scored | 114.614th of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.6 | Points allowed | 110.17th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−6.6 | Margin | +4.55th of 30 |
| 30th of 30105.3 | Offense rating | 116.56th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.9 | Defense rating | 111.911th of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.0 | Pace | 98.227th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 19th of 3016–20 | Road vs home | 28–62nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
−21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MEM 0–2 DEN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.