Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints31
- Gary Payton IIAssists7
- Draymond GreenRebounds8
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints23
- Anthony EdwardsAssists8
- Naz ReidRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–114
- Q40.1Warriors offensive team rebound110–114
- Q40.1Stephen Curry misses three point shot110–114
- Q45.1Anthony Edwards makes free throw 2 of 2110–114
- Q45.1Timberwolves offensive team rebound110–113
- Q45.1Anthony Edwards misses free throw 1 of 2110–113
- Q45.1Chris Paul personal take foul110–113
- Q45.1Anthony Edwards defensive rebound110–113
- Q48.1Klay Thompson misses 25-foot three point jumper110–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:28Stephen Curry makes 26-foot three point jumper (Gary Payton II assists)GS 104 – 104 MIN · GS 25% → 47% +21GS 25% → 47%+21 pts
- Q43:12Mike Conley makes 25-foot three pointer (Rudy Gobert assists)GS 104 – 107 MIN · MIN 53% → 75% +22MIN 53% → 75%+22 pts
- Q41:38Jaden McDaniels makes 10-foot pullup jump shot (Anthony Edwards assists)GS 106 – 109 MIN · MIN 63% → 82% +18MIN 63% → 82%+18 pts
- Q414.2Stephen Curry makes two point shotGS 110 – 111 MIN · GS 1% → 22% +21GS 1% → 22%+21 pts
- Q411.2Anthony Edwards makes free throw 1 of 2GS 110 – 112 MIN · MIN 80% → 95% +15MIN 80% → 95%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -4
- MIN 66%
- Fair odds
- MIN -161
- GS +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 109.4 – 113.0 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1630 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +25 | −2 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIN: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | GS crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +119 Elo | MIN 66.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 61.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 61.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30118.5 | Points scored | 113.118th of 30 |
| 19th of 30116.9 | Points allowed | 106.51st of 30 |
| 16th of 30+1.6 | Margin | +6.73rd of 30 |
| 11th of 30115.5 | Offense rating | 113.717th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.9 | Defense rating | 107.01st of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.6 | Pace | 98.824th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 30 |
| 11th of 3018–14 | Road vs home | 24–96th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
GS 0–2 MIN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.