Indiana Pacers at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Tyrese HaliburtonPoints26
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists11
- Pascal SiakamRebounds16
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints25
- Draymond GreenAssists6
- Stephen CurryRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–111
- Q46.1Tyrese Haliburton makes technical free throw123–111
- Q46.1Trayce Jackson-Davis enters the game for Chris Paul122–111
- Q46.1Chris Paul ejected122–111
- Q46.1Chris Paul technical foul122–111
- Q413.0Myles Turner defensive rebound122–111
- Q416.1Stephen Curry misses 30-foot three point pullup jump shot122–111
- Q422.1Tyrese Haliburton makes free throw 2 of 2122–111
- Q422.1Tyrese Haliburton makes free throw 1 of 2121–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21.0Tyrese Haliburton makes 33-foot running pullup jump shot (Pascal Siakam assists)IND 66 – 67 GS · IND 32% → 40% +8IND 32% → 40%+8 pts
- Q311:33Stephen Curry makes 24-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)IND 68 – 70 GS · GS 54% → 63% +9GS 54% → 63%+9 pts
- Q37:02Aaron Nesmith makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)IND 80 – 76 GS · IND 47% → 57% +10IND 47% → 57%+10 pts
- Q36:38Stephen Curry makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jonathan Kuminga assists)IND 80 – 79 GS · GS 43% → 53% +10GS 43% → 53%+10 pts
- Q35:36Jalen Smith makes 26-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)IND 85 – 79 GS · IND 54% → 64% +10IND 54% → 64%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Warriors 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -3
- GS 61%
- Fair odds
- GS -149
- IND +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 119.3 – 122.3 GS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1560 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +11 | +26 | IND: Stronger than its recent lineups · GS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +78 Elo | GS 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 59.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 59.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30122.6 | Points scored | 118.67th of 30 |
| 28th of 30120.7 | Points allowed | 116.820th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.9 | Margin | +1.814th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.9 | Offense rating | 115.610th of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.1 | Defense rating | 113.915th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30103.9 | Pace | 101.510th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 14th of 3018–16 | Road vs home | 18–1821st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
+26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
IND 0–1 GS in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.