Cleveland Cavaliers at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Darius GarlandPoints19
- Caris LeVertAssists6
- Jarrett AllenRebounds13
Timberwolves- Mike ConleyPoints21
- Mike ConleyAssists6
- Rudy GobertRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game91–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter91–104
- Q47.1shot clock turnover91–104
- Q430.1Anthony Edwards defensive rebound91–104
- Q433.0Caris LeVert misses 24-foot step back jumpshot91–104
- Q449.0Mike Conley makes 25-foot step back jumpshot91–104
- Q41:00Kyle Anderson offensive rebound91–101
- Q41:02Jaden McDaniels misses free throw 2 of 291–101
- Q41:02Timberwolves offensive team rebound91–101
- Q41:02Jaden McDaniels misses free throw 1 of 291–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:59Sam Merrill makes 25-foot three point shot (Darius Garland assists)CLE 47 – 46 MIN · CLE 35% → 43% +8CLE 35% → 43%+8 pts
- Q310:42Anthony Edwards makes 25-foot three point jumper (Mike Conley assists)CLE 51 – 49 MIN · MIN 44% → 53% +9MIN 44% → 53%+9 pts
- Q310:25Caris LeVert makes 24-foot step back jumpshot (Darius Garland assists)CLE 54 – 49 MIN · CLE 47% → 56% +9CLE 47% → 56%+9 pts
- Q36:23Mike Conley makes driving layupCLE 62 – 62 MIN · MIN 51% → 58% +7MIN 51% → 58%+7 pts
- Q411:42Naz Reid makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kyle Anderson assists)CLE 66 – 75 MIN · MIN 79% → 87% +8MIN 79% → 87%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -5
- MIN 68%
- Fair odds
- MIN -167
- CLE +167 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 103.4 – 107.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1623 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −37 | −7 | CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +133 Elo | MIN 68.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 61.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 62.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30113.4 | Points scored | 113.319th of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.4 | Points allowed | 106.71st of 30 |
| 7th of 30+4.0 | Margin | +6.63rd of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.8 | Offense rating | 113.718th of 30 |
| 4th of 30109.8 | Defense rating | 107.11st of 30 |
| 25th of 3098.8 | Pace | 98.924th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3021–12 | Road vs home | 23–96th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
−37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
−7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 1–0 MIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.