Detroit Pistons at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints32
- Marcus SasserAssists5
- Jalen DurenRebounds11
Timberwolves- Naz ReidPoints21
- Mike ConleyAssists7
- Rudy GobertRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game91–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter91–106
- Q412.1James Wiseman lost ball turnover (Josh Minott steals)91–106
- Q415.1Malachi Flynn offensive rebound91–106
- Q420.0Marcus Sasser misses 24-foot step back jumpshot91–106
- Q429.0Leonard Miller kicked ball violation91–106
- Q429.0Jared Rhoden offensive rebound91–106
- Q433.0Buddy Boeheim misses 9-foot pullup jump shot91–106
- Q436.1Malachi Flynn offensive rebound91–106
- Q442.0Marcus Sasser misses 7-foot pullup jump shot91–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q22:47Marcus Sasser makes 24-foot three pointerDET 43 – 40 MIN · DET 26% → 33% +7DET 26% → 33%+7 pts
- Q255.1Naz Reid makes 26-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)DET 45 – 45 MIN · MIN 66% → 73% +8MIN 66% → 73%+8 pts
- Q35:57Cade Cunningham makes two point shotDET 60 – 55 MIN · DET 39% → 46% +7DET 39% → 46%+7 pts
- Q35:40Jaden McDaniels makes 25-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)DET 60 – 58 MIN · MIN 54% → 64% +10MIN 54% → 64%+10 pts
- Q34:34Kyle Anderson makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot (Naz Reid assists)DET 64 – 64 MIN · MIN 63% → 69% +6MIN 63% → 69%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -12
- MIN 88%
- Fair odds
- MIN -417
- DET +417 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 103.6 – 114.5 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1343 | 1634 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −11 | +1 | DET: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIN: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +339 Elo | MIN 87.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 79.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 80.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30111.1 | Points scored | 113.218th of 30 |
| 26th of 30120.2 | Points allowed | 106.51st of 30 |
| 28th of 30−9.1 | Margin | +6.63rd of 30 |
| 26th of 30108.5 | Offense rating | 113.717th of 30 |
| 27th of 30117.4 | Defense rating | 107.01st of 30 |
| 8th of 30101.9 | Pace | 98.823rd of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–37th of 30 |
| 30th of 305–29 | Road vs home | 25–95th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
−11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
+1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 0–1 MIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.