Detroit Pistons at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Marcus SasserPoints24
- Marcus SasserAssists6
- James WisemanRebounds11
Knicks- Donte DiVincenzoPoints40
- Josh HartAssists10
- Precious AchiuwaRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game99–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter99–124
- Q45.0shot clock turnover99–124
- Q429.1Buddy Boeheim makes 26-foot three point jumper (Marcus Sasser assists)99–124
- Q440.0Mamadi Diakite traveling96–124
- Q452.0Precious Achiuwa defensive rebound96–124
- Q454.1Buddy Boeheim misses 25-foot three point jumper96–124
- Q41:06Jericho Sims makes free throw 2 of 296–124
- Q41:06Knicks offensive team rebound96–123
- Q41:06Jericho Sims misses free throw 1 of 296–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:33Marcus Sasser makes 25-foot step back jumpshotDET 3 – 4 NY · DET 12% → 15% +3DET 12% → 15%+3 pts
- Q19:47Donte DiVincenzo makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)DET 3 – 9 NY · NY 87% → 90% +3NY 87% → 90%+3 pts
- Q19:32Tosan Evbuomwan makes 23-foot three point jumper (Marcus Sasser assists)DET 6 – 9 NY · DET 10% → 13% +3DET 10% → 13%+3 pts
- Q18:35Miles McBride makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)DET 8 – 12 NY · NY 84% → 88% +4NY 84% → 88%+4 pts
- Q17:47Josh Hart makes 26-foot three point jumper (Miles McBride assists)DET 8 – 17 NY · NY 90% → 92% +3NY 90% → 92%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Knicks 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -12.5
- NY 88%
- Fair odds
- NY -513
- DET +513 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 100.0 – 112.5 NY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1346 | 1587 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | DET on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −35 | −5 | DET: Missing Cade Cunningham −18, Jalen Duren −11 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · NY: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +347 Elo | NY 88.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 83.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 83.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30111.3 | Points scored | 111.823rd of 30 |
| 26th of 30120.1 | Points allowed | 107.82nd of 30 |
| 28th of 30−8.8 | Margin | +4.06th of 30 |
| 26th of 30108.7 | Offense rating | 114.713th of 30 |
| 26th of 30117.3 | Defense rating | 110.67th of 30 |
| 8th of 30101.9 | Pace | 97.430th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 30th of 305–28 | Road vs home | 23–1310th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
−35 Elo- Cade Cunningham left knee injury management−18 Elo
- Jalen Duren back spasms−11 Elo
Knicks
−5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 0–2 NY in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.