Brooklyn Nets at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Cam ThomasPoints19
- Cam ThomasAssists6
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds9
Knicks- Donte DiVincenzoPoints31
- Jalen BrunsonAssists8
- Josh HartRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game93–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter93–105
- Q410.2Dennis Smith Jr. makes two point shot93–105
- Q415.0shot clock turnover91–105
- Q427.1Alec Burks offensive rebound91–105
- Q431.1Donte DiVincenzo misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot91–105
- Q453.1Dennis Smith Jr. lost ball turnover (Isaiah Hartenstein steals)91–105
- Q41:03Donte DiVincenzo personal foul91–105
- Q41:11Trendon Watford defensive rebound91–105
- Q41:13Donte DiVincenzo misses free throw 2 of 291–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:27Mikal Bridges makes 22-foot three point jumper (Cameron Johnson assists)BKN 68 – 66 NY · BKN 34% → 43% +10BKN 34% → 43%+10 pts
- Q33:56Miles McBride makes 23-foot three point shot (Josh Hart assists)BKN 72 – 71 NY · NY 48% → 59% +11NY 48% → 59%+11 pts
- Q32:44Jalen Brunson makes 25-foot three point shot (Donte DiVincenzo assists)BKN 74 – 76 NY · NY 58% → 69% +11NY 58% → 69%+11 pts
- Q411:44Dennis Smith Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cam Thomas assists)BKN 80 – 80 NY · BKN 28% → 40% +11BKN 28% → 40%+11 pts
- Q410:58Donte DiVincenzo makes 24-foot running pullup jump shotBKN 80 – 85 NY · NY 68% → 79% +11NY 68% → 79%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Knicks 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -6.5
- NY 74%
- Fair odds
- NY -239
- BKN +239 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 99.4 – 106.0 NY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1436 | 1582 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −34 | −20 | BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups · NY: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −24 | BKN crossed 1 time zone and NY crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | NY +184 Elo | NY 74.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 70.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 70.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30111.4 | Points scored | 111.923rd of 30 |
| 15th of 30114.0 | Points allowed | 108.02nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−2.6 | Margin | +3.97th of 30 |
| 21st of 30111.8 | Offense rating | 114.813th of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.4 | Defense rating | 110.88th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.0 | Pace | 97.530th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3010–24 | Road vs home | 22–1310th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
−20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BKN 0–2 NY in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.