Dallas Mavericks at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints47
- Luka DoncicAssists7
- Luka DoncicRebounds12
Rockets- Jabari Smith Jr.Points28
- Fred VanVleetAssists7
- Jabari Smith Jr.Rebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game125–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter125–107
- Q41.0shot clock turnover125–107
- Q424.1Jaden Hardy defensive rebound125–107
- Q425.0Jabari Smith Jr. misses 24-foot three point jumper125–107
- Q436.0Jaden Hardy makes 26-foot three point jumper (Olivier-Maxence Prosper assists)125–107
- Q439.0Olivier-Maxence Prosper offensive rebound122–107
- Q441.0Markieff Morris misses 25-foot three point jumper122–107
- Q450.1A.J. Lawson defensive rebound122–107
- Q451.0Aaron Holiday misses running pullup jump shot122–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:50Jabari Smith Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Reggie Bullock Jr. assists)DAL 5 – 10 HOU · HOU 52% → 58% +6HOU 52% → 58%+6 pts
- Q17:43P.J. Washington makes 25-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)DAL 10 – 10 HOU · DAL 46% → 53% +7DAL 46% → 53%+7 pts
- Q16:52Luka Doncic makes 24-foot step back jumpshotDAL 15 – 10 HOU · DAL 57% → 63% +6DAL 57% → 63%+6 pts
- Q15:32Reggie Bullock Jr. makes 22-foot three point jumper (Fred VanVleet assists)DAL 18 – 15 HOU · HOU 35% → 41% +6HOU 35% → 41%+6 pts
- Q14:38Dante Exum makes 23-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)DAL 21 – 15 HOU · DAL 59% → 66% +6DAL 59% → 66%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mavericks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -0.5
- DAL 52%
- Fair odds
- DAL -111
- HOU +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 115.0 – 114.2 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1583 | 1571 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +63 | +12 | DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | −12 | DAL crossed 2 time zones and HOU crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DAL +15 Elo | DAL 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 52.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30118.6 | Points scored | 114.316th of 30 |
| 20th of 30116.4 | Points allowed | 112.410th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+2.2 | Margin | +1.916th of 30 |
| 7th of 30116.4 | Offense rating | 112.220th of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.2 | Defense rating | 110.44th of 30 |
| 7th of 30101.9 | Pace | 100.912th of 30 |
| 2nd of 309–1 | Last 10 | 10–01st of 30 |
| 5th of 3022–14 | Road vs home | 26–116th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
+63 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DAL 1–1 HOU in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.