Dallas Mavericks at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints28
- Kyrie IrvingAssists8
- P.J. WashingtonRebounds13
Kings- De'Aaron FoxPoints18
- Domantas SabonisAssists9
- Domantas SabonisRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game132–96
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter132–96
- Q415.0Tim Hardaway Jr. defensive rebound132–96
- Q419.2Mason Jones misses 24-foot step back jumpshot132–96
- Q428.0A.J. Lawson makes 1-foot layup (Markieff Morris assists)132–96
- Q444.0Mason Jones makes 26-foot three point shot (Colby Jones assists)130–96
- Q446.1JaVale McGee defensive rebound130–93
- Q450.2Jaden Hardy misses 23-foot three point jumper130–93
- Q41:03Colby Jones makes 5-foot two point shot130–93
- Q41:03Colby Jones offensive rebound130–91
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:42Luka Doncic makes 26-foot step back jumpshotDAL 37 – 35 SAC · DAL 49% → 56% +7DAL 49% → 56%+7 pts
- Q28:34Davion Mitchell makes 23-foot three point jumper (Keon Ellis assists)DAL 40 – 38 SAC · SAC 36% → 44% +7SAC 36% → 44%+7 pts
- Q23:13Dante Exum makes 23-foot three point jumper (Dereck Lively II assists)DAL 51 – 45 SAC · DAL 59% → 67% +8DAL 59% → 67%+8 pts
- Q310:18Kyrie Irving makes 26-foot three pointerDAL 65 – 57 SAC · DAL 66% → 74% +8DAL 66% → 74%+8 pts
- Q39:12Derrick Jones Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kyrie Irving assists)DAL 70 – 61 SAC · DAL 69% → 77% +8DAL 69% → 77%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mavericks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -0.5
- DAL 52%
- Fair odds
- DAL -106
- SAC +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 117.0 – 116.5 SAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | SAC and DAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +60 | +16 | DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +13 Elo | DAL 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 51.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30118.6 | Points scored | 117.69th of 30 |
| 21st of 30116.9 | Points allowed | 116.118th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+1.7 | Margin | +1.617th of 30 |
| 7th of 30116.3 | Offense rating | 115.312th of 30 |
| 21st of 30114.6 | Defense rating | 113.817th of 30 |
| 7th of 30102.0 | Pace | 100.913th of 30 |
| 4th of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 8th of 3020–14 | Road vs home | 21–1312th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
+60 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
+16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DAL 0–2 SAC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.