Philadelphia 76ers at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints29
- Cameron PayneAssists6
- Tobias HarrisRebounds8
Kings- De'Aaron FoxPoints23
- Domantas SabonisAssists10
- Domantas SabonisRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game96–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter96–108
- Q419.0Ricky Council IV makes free throw 2 of 296–108
- Q419.076ers offensive team rebound95–108
- Q419.0Ricky Council IV misses free throw 1 of 295–108
- Q419.0Jalen Slawson shooting foul95–108
- Q431.1Davion Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 295–108
- Q431.1Davion Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 295–107
- Q431.1KJ Martin personal take foul95–106
- Q434.1Davion Mitchell offensive rebound95–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:00Tyrese Maxey makes 29-foot step back jumpshotPHI 16 – 15 SAC · PHI 31% → 38% +6PHI 31% → 38%+6 pts
- Q13:45Keegan Murray makes 25-foot three point jumper (Domantas Sabonis assists)PHI 16 – 18 SAC · SAC 62% → 69% +6SAC 62% → 69%+6 pts
- Q11:00Keegan Murray makes 22-foot three point jumper (Malik Monk assists)PHI 24 – 27 SAC · SAC 64% → 70% +6SAC 64% → 70%+6 pts
- Q29:09De'Aaron Fox makes 25-foot three point jumper (Malik Monk assists)PHI 32 – 36 SAC · SAC 66% → 72% +7SAC 66% → 72%+7 pts
- Q24:58Keon Ellis makes 25-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)PHI 38 – 43 SAC · SAC 67% → 74% +7SAC 67% → 74%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -5.5
- SAC 70%
- Fair odds
- SAC -193
- PHI +193 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 109.1 – 114.1 SAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −40 | +16 | PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +148 Elo | SAC 70.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 65.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 65.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30114.5 | Points scored | 117.89th of 30 |
| 9th of 30112.1 | Points allowed | 116.318th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.3 | Margin | +1.417th of 30 |
| 14th of 30114.6 | Offense rating | 115.312th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.3 | Defense rating | 113.917th of 30 |
| 18th of 3099.5 | Pace | 101.012th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 15th of 3018–17 | Road vs home | 20–1313th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
−40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
+16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 1–0 SAC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.