Philadelphia 76ers at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Tobias HarrisPoints24
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists6
- Paul ReedRebounds8
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints20
- James HardenAssists14
- Ivica ZubacRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–107
- Q410.1Xavier Moon out of bounds bad pass turnover121–107
- Q416.2Kobe Brown defensive rebound121–107
- Q420.1Jeff Dowtin Jr. misses 27-foot step back jumpshot121–107
- Q442.1Brandon Boston Jr. makes 16-foot step back jumpshot121–107
- Q457.1KJ Martin makes 1-foot driving dunk (Cameron Payne assists)121–105
- Q41:07KJ Martin enters the game for Tyrese Maxey119–105
- Q41:0776ers Full timeout119–105
- Q41:18Amir Coffey makes 9-foot driving floating jump shot (Mason Plumlee assists)119–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q37:17Paul George makes 23-foot three point jumper (Terance Mann assists)PHI 70 – 70 LAC · LAC 52% → 61% +10LAC 52% → 61%+10 pts
- Q36:56Buddy Hield makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)PHI 73 – 70 LAC · PHI 39% → 49% +10PHI 39% → 49%+10 pts
- Q36:38Paul George makes 24-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)PHI 73 – 73 LAC · LAC 51% → 61% +10LAC 51% → 61%+10 pts
- Q31:23Cameron Payne makes 25-foot three point jumper (KJ Martin assists)PHI 86 – 79 LAC · PHI 56% → 67% +11PHI 56% → 67%+11 pts
- Q410:07Tyrese Maxey makes 26-foot three pointerPHI 93 – 85 LAC · PHI 64% → 76% +12PHI 64% → 76%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Clippers 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -5.5
- LAC 71%
- Fair odds
- LAC -207
- PHI +207 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 107.0 – 112.6 LAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −43 | +1 | PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAC: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +160 Elo | LAC 71.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 67.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 67.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30114.4 | Points scored | 116.612th of 30 |
| 9th of 30112.2 | Points allowed | 112.510th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.2 | Margin | +4.16th of 30 |
| 14th of 30114.4 | Offense rating | 117.64th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.3 | Defense rating | 113.514th of 30 |
| 17th of 3099.6 | Pace | 99.021st of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 15th of 3017–17 | Road vs home | 22–119th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
−43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
+1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.