Philadelphia 76ers at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints27
- Tobias HarrisAssists4
- Tobias HarrisRebounds13
Lakers- Anthony DavisPoints23
- LeBron JamesAssists6
- Anthony DavisRebounds19
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game94–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter94–101
- Q49.0Austin Reaves makes free throw 2 of 294–101
- Q49.0Austin Reaves makes free throw 1 of 294–100
- Q49.0Tyrese Maxey personal take foul94–99
- Q415.1Austin Reaves defensive rebound94–99
- Q417.0Tyrese Maxey misses 23-foot three point jumper94–99
- Q420.0LeBron James bad pass (Tyrese Maxey steals)94–99
- Q422.1Tobias Harris makes free throw 2 of 294–99
- Q422.1D'Angelo Russell enters the game for Cam Reddish93–99
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:27Mo Bamba makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tobias Harris assists)PHI 65 – 59 LAL · PHI 44% → 54% +10PHI 44% → 54%+10 pts
- Q35:37Spencer Dinwiddie makes 23-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)PHI 66 – 62 LAL · LAL 41% → 52% +10LAL 41% → 52%+10 pts
- Q34:47Austin Reaves makes 29-foot three point jumper (Anthony Davis assists)PHI 66 – 65 LAL · LAL 51% → 61% +10LAL 51% → 61%+10 pts
- Q31:57Spencer Dinwiddie makes 23-foot three point jumper (Anthony Davis assists)PHI 70 – 71 LAL · LAL 56% → 67% +11LAL 56% → 67%+11 pts
- Q46:09LeBron James makes two point shotPHI 83 – 86 LAL · LAL 65% → 75% +10LAL 65% → 75%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lakers 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -7.5
- LAL 77%
- Fair odds
- LAL -280
- PHI +280 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 110.9 – 118.7 LAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −63 | +44 | PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +213 Elo | LAL 77.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 73.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 73.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30114.7 | Points scored | 117.59th of 30 |
| 9th of 30112.4 | Points allowed | 117.523rd of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.3 | Margin | +0.119th of 30 |
| 14th of 30114.7 | Offense rating | 114.015th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.4 | Defense rating | 113.916th of 30 |
| 17th of 3099.6 | Pace | 102.35th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 15th of 3017–16 | Road vs home | 25–128th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
−63 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 1–0 LAL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.