Sacramento Kings at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- De'Aaron FoxPoints25
- Domantas SabonisAssists6
- Domantas SabonisRebounds14
Wizards- Kyle KuzmaPoints31
- Kyle KuzmaAssists5
- Richaun HolmesRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–109
- Q43.1Domantas Sabonis lost ball turnover (Jordan Poole steals)102–109
- Q44.2Domantas Sabonis offensive rebound102–109
- Q48.1De'Aaron Fox misses 28-foot step back jumpshot102–109
- Q412.2Jordan Poole makes free throw 2 of 2102–109
- Q412.2Chris Duarte enters the game for Keon Ellis102–108
- Q412.2Jordan Poole makes free throw 1 of 2102–108
- Q412.2Keon Ellis personal take foul102–107
- Q415.1Jared Butler enters the game for Richaun Holmes102–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:28De'Aaron Fox makes 29-foot three pointerSAC 86 – 87 WSH · SAC 39% → 53% +14SAC 39% → 53%+14 pts
- Q47:36De'Aaron Fox makes 23-foot three point jumperSAC 91 – 92 WSH · SAC 36% → 51% +15SAC 36% → 51%+15 pts
- Q47:02Jared Butler makes 24-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)SAC 91 – 95 WSH · WSH 49% → 65% +16WSH 49% → 65%+16 pts
- Q46:02Keegan Murray makes 26-foot three point jumper (Harrison Barnes assists)SAC 94 – 97 WSH · SAC 23% → 38% +15SAC 23% → 38%+15 pts
- Q44:35Davion Mitchell makes 27-foot three point jumper (Domantas Sabonis assists)SAC 97 – 99 WSH · SAC 24% → 42% +18SAC 24% → 42%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -7
- SAC 76%
- Fair odds
- SAC -192
- WSH +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 122.1 – 117.1 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1552 | 1310 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | SAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +21 | −12 | SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +198 Elo | SAC 75.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 64.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 65.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30118.1 | Points scored | 113.816th of 30 |
| 18th of 30116.6 | Points allowed | 124.230th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+1.5 | Margin | −10.330th of 30 |
| 12th of 30115.6 | Offense rating | 108.726th of 30 |
| 17th of 30114.1 | Defense rating | 118.630th of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.1 | Pace | 104.51st of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 10th of 3020–15 | Road vs home | 4–2830th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SAC 1–0 WSH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.