Sacramento Kings at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- De'Aaron FoxPoints31
- Domantas SabonisAssists8
- Domantas SabonisRebounds14
Magic- Jonathan IsaacPoints25
- Cole AnthonyAssists6
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–107
- Q40.0Magic offensive team rebound109–107
- Q40.0Paolo Banchero misses 32-foot three point pullup jump shot109–107
- Q42.0Alex Len enters the game for Keegan Murray109–107
- Q42.0Joe Ingles enters the game for Moritz Wagner109–107
- Q42.0Magic Full timeout109–107
- Q42.0Keon Ellis makes free throw 2 of 2109–107
- Q42.0Moritz Wagner enters the game for Cole Anthony108–107
- Q42.0Kings offensive team rebound108–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:46Keegan Murray makes 27-foot three point jumper (Domantas Sabonis assists)SAC 96 – 94 ORL · SAC 40% → 58% +18SAC 40% → 58%+18 pts
- Q456.1Franz Wagner makes 2-foot two point shotSAC 106 – 105 ORL · ORL 14% → 37% +23ORL 14% → 37%+23 pts
- Q425.1Cole Anthony makes 2-foot two point shot (Paolo Banchero assists)SAC 106 – 107 ORL · ORL 30% → 72% +42ORL 30% → 72%+42 pts
- Q421.0De'Aaron Fox makes free throw 1 of 2SAC 107 – 107 ORL · SAC 26% → 49% +23SAC 26% → 49%+23 pts
- Q421.0De'Aaron Fox makes free throw 2 of 2SAC 108 – 107 ORL · SAC 49% → 72% +23SAC 49% → 72%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Magic 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -2.5
- ORL 60%
- Fair odds
- ORL -154
- SAC +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 107.6 – 110.9 ORL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1561 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +14 | +23 | SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +69 Elo | ORL 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 60.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 60.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30117.9 | Points scored | 110.926th of 30 |
| 18th of 30116.5 | Points allowed | 108.83rd of 30 |
| 16th of 30+1.4 | Margin | +2.112th of 30 |
| 12th of 30115.4 | Offense rating | 111.723rd of 30 |
| 17th of 30114.0 | Defense rating | 109.53rd of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.1 | Pace | 98.825th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 12th of 3020–16 | Road vs home | 25–85th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SAC 1–0 ORL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.