Dallas Mavericks at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Kyrie IrvingPoints30
- Luka DoncicAssists12
- Luka DoncicRebounds9
Kings- De'Aaron FoxPoints23
- Domantas SabonisAssists10
- Domantas SabonisRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–103
- Q42.1Kyrie Irving defensive rebound107–103
- Q42.1Keegan Murray misses 25-foot three point jumper107–103
- Q44.0Domantas Sabonis enters the game for Kessler Edwards107–103
- Q44.0Kings Full timeout107–103
- Q44.0Luka Doncic makes free throw 2 of 2107–103
- Q44.0Mavericks offensive team rebound106–103
- Q44.0Luka Doncic misses free throw 1 of 2106–103
- Q44.0Keegan Murray personal take foul106–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:10Keegan Murray makes 25-foot three point jumper (Domantas Sabonis assists)DAL 96 – 98 SAC · SAC 42% → 60% +19SAC 42% → 60%+19 pts
- Q44:01Kyrie Irving makes 26-foot three point jumperDAL 99 – 98 SAC · DAL 38% → 59% +21DAL 38% → 59%+21 pts
- Q43:12Keegan Murray makes 24-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)DAL 101 – 101 SAC · SAC 26% → 48% +22SAC 26% → 48%+22 pts
- Q42:35De'Aaron Fox makes 19-foot pullup jump shotDAL 103 – 103 SAC · SAC 31% → 49% +17SAC 31% → 49%+17 pts
- Q428.1Dante Exum makes 24-foot three point jumper (P.J. Washington assists)DAL 106 – 103 SAC · DAL 51% → 94% +44DAL 51% → 94%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mavericks 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -3
- DAL 61%
- Fair odds
- DAL -129
- SAC +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 117.5 – 115.5 SAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1578 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +63 | −1 | DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · SAC: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +81 Elo | DAL 61.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 56.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30118.8 | Points scored | 117.39th of 30 |
| 20th of 30116.6 | Points allowed | 116.319th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.2 | Margin | +1.018th of 30 |
| 6th of 30116.5 | Offense rating | 115.113th of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.3 | Defense rating | 114.018th of 30 |
| 6th of 30102.0 | Pace | 101.012th of 30 |
| 2nd of 309–1 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 6th of 3021–14 | Road vs home | 21–1413th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
+63 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
−1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DAL 1–2 SAC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.