Chicago Bulls at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- DeMar DeRozanPoints27
- DeMar DeRozanAssists8
- Andre DrummondRebounds9
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints22
- Mike ConleyAssists7
- Anthony EdwardsRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–101
- Q413.0Nikola Vucevic defensive rebound109–101
- Q415.1Naz Reid misses 24-foot three point jumper109–101
- Q417.0Kyle Anderson enters the game for Jaden McDaniels109–101
- Q417.0Timberwolves Full timeout109–101
- Q418.0Coby White makes 24-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)109–101
- Q434.1Mike Conley personal take foul106–101
- Q439.1Alex Caruso defensive rebound106–101
- Q441.1Mike Conley misses 23-foot three point jumper106–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:56Nikola Vucevic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ayo Dosunmu assists)CHI 96 – 90 MIN · CHI 58% → 72% +14CHI 58% → 72%+14 pts
- Q47:31Naz Reid makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jaden McDaniels assists)CHI 96 – 93 MIN · MIN 27% → 41% +14MIN 27% → 41%+14 pts
- Q45:21Rudy Gobert makes two point shotCHI 96 – 97 MIN · MIN 50% → 62% +12MIN 50% → 62%+12 pts
- Q43:26DeMar DeRozan makes 25-foot three pointer (Alex Caruso assists)CHI 101 – 99 MIN · CHI 38% → 61% +23CHI 38% → 61%+23 pts
- Q42:27Alex Caruso makes 22-foot three point jumper (Nikola Vucevic assists)CHI 104 – 99 MIN · CHI 64% → 85% +21CHI 64% → 85%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -7.5
- MIN 77%
- Fair odds
- MIN -204
- CHI +204 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 104.9 – 110.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1649 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +2 | +8 | CHI: Usual rotation · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | MIN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +211 Elo | MIN 77.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 65.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 67.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30112.1 | Points scored | 113.018th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.7 | Points allowed | 106.21st of 30 |
| 21st of 30−1.6 | Margin | +6.83rd of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.8 | Offense rating | 113.716th of 30 |
| 21st of 30114.4 | Defense rating | 106.91st of 30 |
| 28th of 3097.8 | Pace | 98.722nd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 18th of 3016–20 | Road vs home | 26–95th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
+2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
+8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHI 1–0 MIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.