Chicago Bulls at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- DeMar DeRozanPoints31
- Coby WhiteAssists9
- Andre DrummondRebounds11
Nets- Cam ThomasPoints28
- Dennis SchroderAssists7
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–125
- Q49.1shot clock turnover108–125
- Q430.1Jalen Wilson defensive rebound108–125
- Q434.1Torrey Craig misses 25-foot three point jumper108–125
- Q444.1Lonnie Walker IV makes 25-foot three pointer108–125
- Q451.1Day'Ron Sharpe defensive rebound108–122
- Q456.0Onuralp Bitim misses 25-foot three point jumper108–122
- Q41:05Terry Taylor enters the game for Alex Caruso108–122
- Q41:05Javonte Green enters the game for Ayo Dosunmu108–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q332.1Alex Caruso makes 24-foot three point jumper (Coby White assists)CHI 83 – 84 BKN · CHI 37% → 49% +12CHI 37% → 49%+12 pts
- Q411:42Mikal Bridges makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cam Thomas assists)CHI 85 – 89 BKN · BKN 52% → 64% +12BKN 52% → 64%+12 pts
- Q49:46Cam Thomas makes 26-foot three pointer (Nic Claxton assists)CHI 89 – 94 BKN · BKN 57% → 70% +13BKN 57% → 70%+13 pts
- Q47:43Jalen Wilson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nic Claxton assists)CHI 93 – 100 BKN · BKN 68% → 80% +12BKN 68% → 80%+12 pts
- Q46:48Dennis Schroder makes 26-foot three point jumper (Mikal Bridges assists)CHI 97 – 103 BKN · BKN 64% → 78% +14BKN 64% → 78%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bulls 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -1
- CHI 54%
- Fair odds
- CHI -123
- BKN +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 109.4 – 107.9 BKN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1442 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +2 | −31 | CHI: Usual rotation · BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | CHI crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CHI +26 Elo | CHI 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 55.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30112.2 | Points scored | 111.024th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.6 | Points allowed | 113.514th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−1.4 | Margin | −2.522nd of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.8 | Offense rating | 111.622nd of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.2 | Defense rating | 114.119th of 30 |
| 28th of 3097.9 | Pace | 98.821st of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 18th of 3016–19 | Road vs home | 16–1923rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
+2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
−31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHI 0–2 BKN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.