Brooklyn Nets at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Cam ThomasPoints38
- Dennis SchroderAssists8
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds13
Wizards- Jordan PoolePoints38
- Kyle KuzmaAssists10
- Deni AvdijaRebounds12
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game122–119
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime122–119
- OT0.2Deni Avdija lost ball turnover (Dorian Finney-Smith steals)122–119
- OT2.0Deni Avdija defensive rebound122–119
- OT4.1Dorian Finney-Smith misses free throw 2 of 2122–119
- OT4.1Deni Avdija enters the game for Kyle Kuzma122–119
- OT4.1Nets offensive team rebound122–119
- OT4.1Dorian Finney-Smith misses free throw 1 of 2122–119
- OT4.1Kyle Kuzma personal foul122–119
- OT4.1Dorian Finney-Smith defensive rebound122–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:09Jordan Poole makes 27-foot step back jumpshotBKN 106 – 104 WSH · WSH 22% → 38% +16WSH 22% → 38%+16 pts
- Q43:44Jordan Poole makes 28-foot step back jumpshotBKN 106 – 107 WSH · WSH 36% → 58% +22WSH 36% → 58%+22 pts
- Q42:34Dennis Schroder makes driving layup (Cam Thomas assists)BKN 110 – 109 WSH · BKN 40% → 58% +18BKN 40% → 58%+18 pts
- Q41:48Dennis Schroder makes 23-foot pullup jump shotBKN 112 – 109 WSH · BKN 60% → 79% +19BKN 60% → 79%+19 pts
- Q41:31Kyle Kuzma makes 24-foot three point jumper (Anthony Gill assists)BKN 112 – 112 WSH · WSH 19% → 50% +31WSH 19% → 50%+31 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Wizards 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BKN -1
- WSH 45%
- Fair odds
- WSH -112
- BKN +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 111.3 – 112.1 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1437 | 1337 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −43 | −1 | BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups · WSH: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | WSH crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BKN +34 Elo | BKN 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 52.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30110.9 | Points scored | 113.717th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.5 | Points allowed | 123.430th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−2.6 | Margin | −9.829th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30111.6 | Offense rating | 108.725th of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.2 | Defense rating | 118.030th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3098.8 | Pace | 104.41st of 30 |
| 25th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3011–25 | Road vs home | 6–2830th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BKN 2–1 WSH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.