Washington Wizards at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Jordan PoolePoints23
- Jared ButlerAssists13
- Richaun HolmesRebounds15
Bulls- DeMar DeRozanPoints27
- DeMar DeRozanAssists6
- Nikola VucevicRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–105
- Q40.0Bulls offensive team rebound107–105
- Q40.0DeMar DeRozan misses 44-foot three point pullup jump shot107–105
- Q42.1Alex Caruso defensive rebound107–105
- Q45.1Justin Champagnie misses free throw 2 of 2107–105
- Q45.1Richaun Holmes enters the game for Anthony Gill107–105
- Q45.1Nikola Vucevic enters the game for Torrey Craig107–105
- Q45.1Justin Champagnie makes free throw 1 of 2107–105
- Q45.1Coby White personal take foul106–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:10Coby White makes driving layupWSH 100 – 99 CHI · CHI 26% → 45% +18CHI 26% → 45%+18 pts
- Q41:59Justin Champagnie makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jared Butler assists)WSH 103 – 99 CHI · WSH 56% → 82% +26WSH 56% → 82%+26 pts
- Q448.1DeMar DeRozan makes driving layup (Alex Caruso assists)WSH 103 – 101 CHI · CHI 6% → 23% +17CHI 6% → 23%+17 pts
- Q49.1DeMar DeRozan makes driving layup (Nikola Vucevic assists)WSH 104 – 103 CHI · CHI <1% → 18% +18CHI <1% → 18%+18 pts
- Q47.1Corey Kispert makes free throw 1 of 2WSH 105 – 103 CHI · WSH 85% → 98% +13WSH 85% → 98%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bulls 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -6
- CHI 73%
- Fair odds
- CHI -226
- WSH +226 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 113.2 – 119.4 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1328 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −2 | −6 | WSH: Usual rotation · CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +170 Elo | CHI 72.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 69.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 69.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30113.7 | Points scored | 112.121st of 30 |
| 30th of 30123.7 | Points allowed | 113.915th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−9.9 | Margin | −1.821st of 30 |
| 25th of 30108.7 | Offense rating | 112.719th of 30 |
| 30th of 30118.2 | Defense rating | 114.520th of 30 |
| 1st of 30104.4 | Pace | 97.828th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 29th of 307–30 | Road vs home | 18–1821st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
−6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 0–1 CHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.