Boston Celtics at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints26
- Payton PritchardAssists8
- Luke KornetRebounds13
Bulls- DeMar DeRozanPoints28
- Coby WhiteAssists10
- DeMar DeRozanRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–113
- Q413.0Payton Pritchard defensive rebound124–113
- Q415.1Dalen Terry misses driving floating jump shot124–113
- Q426.1Dalen Terry defensive rebound124–113
- Q428.1Jayson Tatum misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot124–113
- Q446.1Onuralp Bitim enters the game for DeMar DeRozan124–113
- Q446.1Torrey Craig enters the game for Nikola Vucevic124–113
- Q446.1Dalen Terry enters the game for Alex Caruso124–113
- Q446.1Terry Taylor enters the game for Coby White124–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:47Al Horford makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)BOS 79 – 77 CHI · BOS 52% → 62% +10BOS 52% → 62%+10 pts
- Q33:30Al Horford makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)BOS 87 – 81 CHI · BOS 66% → 75% +9BOS 66% → 75%+9 pts
- Q411:14Sam Hauser makes 23-foot three point jumper (Payton Pritchard assists)BOS 100 – 92 CHI · BOS 74% → 83% +9BOS 74% → 83%+9 pts
- Q49:30Oshae Brissett makes 24-foot three point jumper (Luke Kornet assists)BOS 103 – 96 CHI · BOS 71% → 82% +11BOS 71% → 82%+11 pts
- Q45:33Derrick White makes 24-foot three pointer (Jayson Tatum assists)BOS 110 – 102 CHI · BOS 80% → 90% +10BOS 80% → 90%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -6.5
- BOS 74%
- Fair odds
- BOS -143
- CHI +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 114.7 – 112.0 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1722 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | BOS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −1 | −9 | BOS: Usual rotation · CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +183 Elo | BOS 74.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 58.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30121.1 | Points scored | 112.121st of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.4 | Points allowed | 113.714th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+11.7 | Margin | −1.621st of 30 |
| 1st of 30121.1 | Offense rating | 112.619th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30109.4 | Defense rating | 114.318th of 30 |
| 19th of 3099.3 | Pace | 97.928th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 1st of 3024–11 | Road vs home | 18–1720th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
−1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
−9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 2–0 CHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.