Toronto Raptors at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Gary Trent Jr.Points31
- Kelly OlynykAssists10
- Ochai AgbajiRebounds9
Wizards- Deni AvdijaPoints22
- Jordan PooleAssists12
- Richaun HolmesRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–112
- Q40.0Raptors offensive team rebound109–112
- Q40.0Bruce Brown misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot109–112
- Q47.0Kelly Olynyk defensive rebound109–112
- Q410.0Deni Avdija misses free throw 2 of 2109–112
- Q410.0Wizards offensive team rebound109–112
- Q410.0Deni Avdija misses free throw 1 of 2109–112
- Q410.0Gradey Dick personal take foul109–112
- Q411.1Kelly Olynyk enters the game for Garrett Temple109–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:59Jahmi'us Ramsey makes 27-foot three point jumper (Javon Freeman-Liberty assists)TOR 90 – 86 WSH · TOR 45% → 61% +15TOR 45% → 61%+15 pts
- Q47:35Jordan Poole makes 27-foot three point jumper (Corey Kispert assists)TOR 90 – 89 WSH · WSH 39% → 54% +16WSH 39% → 54%+16 pts
- Q44:52Corey Kispert makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jordan Poole assists)TOR 95 – 99 WSH · WSH 51% → 80% +29WSH 51% → 80%+29 pts
- Q44:07Gary Trent Jr. makes 28-foot three point jumper (Kelly Olynyk assists)TOR 100 – 101 WSH · TOR 19% → 36% +17TOR 19% → 36%+17 pts
- Q43:20Jordan Poole makes 15-foot pullup jump shotTOR 102 – 103 WSH · WSH 48% → 64% +15WSH 48% → 64%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Wizards 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH -5.5
- WSH 71%
- Fair odds
- WSH -262
- TOR +262 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 114.4 – 121.7 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1379 | 1326 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −131 | 0 | TOR: Missing Chris Boucher −10 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · WSH: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +154 Elo | WSH 70.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 72.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 72.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30113.2 | Points scored | 113.817th of 30 |
| 24th of 30118.1 | Points allowed | 123.930th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−5.0 | Margin | −10.129th of 30 |
| 24th of 30111.2 | Offense rating | 108.726th of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.1 | Defense rating | 118.430th of 30 |
| 14th of 30100.9 | Pace | 104.51st of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 3010–25 | Road vs home | 5–2830th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
−131 Elo- Chris Boucher right knee injury−10 Elo
Wizards
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 2–0 WSH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.