Brooklyn Nets at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Trendon WatfordPoints19
- Dennis SchroderAssists7
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds16
Raptors- Gary Trent Jr.Points18
- Kelly OlynykAssists9
- Ochai AgbajiRebounds5
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game96–88
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter96–88
- Q42.0shot clock turnover96–88
- Q426.0Ochai Agbaji makes driving dunk96–88
- Q429.0Dorian Finney-Smith makes free throw 2 of 296–86
- Q429.0Dorian Finney-Smith makes free throw 1 of 295–86
- Q429.0Gary Trent Jr. personal foul94–86
- Q445.0Javon Freeman-Liberty makes tip shot94–86
- Q445.0Javon Freeman-Liberty offensive rebound94–84
- Q446.0Javon Freeman-Liberty misses two point shot94–84
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:48Bruce Brown makes 23-foot three point jumper (Gradey Dick assists)BKN 66 – 67 TOR · TOR 39% → 50% +11TOR 39% → 50%+11 pts
- Q49:39Trendon Watford makes 22-foot three point jumper (Mikal Bridges assists)BKN 74 – 73 TOR · BKN 44% → 58% +14BKN 44% → 58%+14 pts
- Q49:00Mikal Bridges makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jacob Gilyard assists)BKN 77 – 74 TOR · BKN 53% → 67% +14BKN 53% → 67%+14 pts
- Q47:57Noah Clowney makes 23-foot three point jumper (Mikal Bridges assists)BKN 80 – 75 TOR · BKN 63% → 76% +13BKN 63% → 76%+13 pts
- Q43:39Nic Claxton makes 1-foot dunk (Dennis Schroder assists)BKN 86 – 81 TOR · BKN 73% → 84% +11BKN 73% → 84%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nets 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BKN 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BKN -3
- BKN 62%
- Fair odds
- BKN -132
- TOR +132 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 112.1 – 110.0 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1430 | 1376 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −51 | −120 | BKN: Missing Cam Thomas −8 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · TOR: Missing Chris Boucher −9 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BKN +87 Elo | BKN 62.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BKN 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BKN 56.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30111.1 | Points scored | 113.119th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.8 | Points allowed | 118.124th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−2.7 | Margin | −5.024th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30111.7 | Offense rating | 111.124th of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.4 | Defense rating | 116.024th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3098.9 | Pace | 101.014th of 30 |
| 25th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 0–1030th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3010–25 | Road vs home | 13–2224th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−51 Elo- Cam Thomas lower back tightness−8 Elo
Raptors
−120 Elo- Chris Boucher right knee injury−9 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BKN 1–1 TOR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.