Indiana Pacers at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Andrew NembhardPoints18
- Pascal SiakamAssists5
- Pascal SiakamRebounds8
Bulls- DeMar DeRozanPoints27
- Alex CarusoAssists7
- Nikola VucevicRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game99–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter99–125
- Q418.1Doug McDermott makes 26-foot three pointer (James Johnson assists)99–125
- Q425.08 second turnover96–125
- Q430.1Dalen Terry defensive rebound96–125
- Q435.0Doug McDermott misses 27-foot three point jumper96–125
- Q449.2Dalen Terry traveling96–125
- Q453.0Torrey Craig defensive rebound96–125
- Q456.1Dalen Terry blocks James Johnson 's 3-foot driving layup96–125
- Q41:03Torrey Craig makes layup (Onuralp Bitim assists)96–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q211:24Pascal Siakam makes 26-foot three point jumper (T.J. McConnell assists)IND 26 – 29 CHI · IND 35% → 42% +7IND 35% → 42%+7 pts
- Q210:04Torrey Craig makes 23-foot three point jumper (Coby White assists)IND 28 – 33 CHI · CHI 55% → 63% +7CHI 55% → 63%+7 pts
- Q29:51Myles Turner makes 24-foot three point jumper (T.J. McConnell assists)IND 31 – 33 CHI · IND 37% → 45% +7IND 37% → 45%+7 pts
- Q29:18Coby White makes running pullup jump shotIND 31 – 38 CHI · CHI 60% → 67% +7CHI 60% → 67%+7 pts
- Q26:42Andrew Nembhard makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)IND 37 – 42 CHI · IND 30% → 37% +7IND 30% → 37%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bulls 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -2.5
- CHI 41%
- Fair odds
- CHI -102
- IND +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 118.4 – 118.6 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1558 | 1458 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +18 | −6 | IND: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | IND crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | IND +64 Elo | IND 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 50.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30123.1 | Points scored | 112.022nd of 30 |
| 29th of 30120.9 | Points allowed | 113.815th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+2.1 | Margin | −1.821st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.3 | Offense rating | 112.619th of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.3 | Defense rating | 114.421st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30103.9 | Pace | 97.928th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 14th of 3020–17 | Road vs home | 18–1921st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
−6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
IND 1–2 CHI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.