Indiana Pacers at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints31
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists9
- Myles TurnerRebounds7
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints26
- Russell WestbrookAssists7
- Ivica ZubacRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game133–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter133–116
- Q47.1Isaiah Jackson defensive rebound133–116
- Q49.2Xavier Moon misses 9-foot pullup jump shot133–116
- Q414.1Amir Coffey offensive rebound133–116
- Q417.0Xavier Moon misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot133–116
- Q428.1Clippers defensive team rebound133–116
- Q429.1Doug McDermott misses 26-foot three point jumper133–116
- Q449.1Norman Powell makes two point shot (Xavier Moon assists)133–116
- Q453.1Amir Coffey defensive rebound133–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:58Terance Mann makes 25-foot step back jumpshotIND 59 – 58 LAC · LAC 45% → 54% +8LAC 45% → 54%+8 pts
- Q21:22Myles Turner makes 27-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)IND 62 – 60 LAC · IND 41% → 49% +8IND 41% → 49%+8 pts
- Q257.1Tyrese Haliburton makes 26-foot three pointerIND 65 – 62 LAC · IND 43% → 52% +9IND 43% → 52%+9 pts
- Q311:47Myles Turner makes 27-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)IND 68 – 62 LAC · IND 52% → 61% +9IND 52% → 61%+9 pts
- Q36:24Obi Toppin makes 24-foot three point jumper (T.J. McConnell assists)IND 83 – 75 LAC · IND 61% → 70% +9IND 61% → 70%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Clippers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -0.5
- LAC 53%
- Fair odds
- LAC -144
- IND +144 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 117.6 – 120.4 LAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | IND on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +26 | −13 | IND: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +20 Elo | LAC 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 59.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 59.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30122.9 | Points scored | 116.512th of 30 |
| 29th of 30121.0 | Points allowed | 112.711th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.9 | Margin | +3.87th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.1 | Offense rating | 117.65th of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.2 | Defense rating | 113.814th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30104.0 | Pace | 99.021st of 30 |
| 11th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 14th of 3019–17 | Road vs home | 22–1210th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
−13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
IND 0–1 LAC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.