Indiana Pacers at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints36
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists10
- Pascal SiakamRebounds12
Lakers- Anthony DavisPoints36
- LeBron JamesAssists10
- Anthony DavisRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game145–150
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter145–150
- Q40.0Pacers offensive team rebound145–150
- Q40.0Tyrese Haliburton misses 40-foot three point pullup jump shot145–150
- Q42.2Cam Reddish makes free throw 2 of 2145–150
- Q42.2Lakers offensive team rebound145–149
- Q42.2Cam Reddish misses free throw 1 of 2145–149
- Q42.2Obi Toppin personal take foul145–149
- Q43.1Doug McDermott bad pass (Cam Reddish steals)145–149
- Q46.1Pascal Siakam offensive rebound145–149
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:33Aaron Nesmith makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)IND 123 – 127 LAL · IND 13% → 26% +12IND 13% → 26%+12 pts
- Q45:07Pascal Siakam makes layup (Myles Turner assists)IND 125 – 129 LAL · IND 16% → 25% +9IND 16% → 25%+9 pts
- Q44:12Anthony Davis makes two point shotIND 125 – 131 LAL · LAL 77% → 86% +9LAL 77% → 86%+9 pts
- Q43:50Pascal Siakam makes 17-foot pullup jump shotIND 127 – 131 LAL · IND 13% → 22% +9IND 13% → 22%+9 pts
- Q43:29LeBron James makes three point jumper (Spencer Dinwiddie assists)IND 127 – 134 LAL · LAL 79% → 92% +13LAL 79% → 92%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lakers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -0.5
- LAL 51%
- Fair odds
- LAL -124
- IND +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 120.6 – 122.2 LAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +19 | −4 | IND: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +7 Elo | LAL 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 55.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30122.6 | Points scored | 117.39th of 30 |
| 27th of 30120.6 | Points allowed | 117.123rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30+2.0 | Margin | +0.219th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30117.9 | Offense rating | 113.816th of 30 |
| 24th of 30115.9 | Defense rating | 113.714th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30103.9 | Pace | 102.34th of 30 |
| 12th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–412th of 30 |
| 14th of 3019–16 | Road vs home | 26–128th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
IND 0–1 LAL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.