Cleveland Cavaliers at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Caris LeVertPoints26
- Darius GarlandAssists8
- Jarrett AllenRebounds12
Jazz- Brice SensabaughPoints22
- Collin SextonAssists7
- Brice SensabaughRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game129–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter129–113
- Q411.1shot clock turnover129–113
- Q435.1Taylor Hendricks makes 1-foot dunk129–113
- Q438.1Georges Niang lost ball turnover (Taylor Hendricks steals)129–111
- Q451.1Omer Yurtseven makes 4-foot alley oop dunk shot (Collin Sexton assists)129–111
- Q41:01Damian Jones makes 6-foot two point shot (Marcus Morris Sr. assists)129–109
- Q41:13Taylor Hendricks makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Brice Sensabaugh assists)127–109
- Q41:18Brice Sensabaugh defensive rebound127–106
- Q41:20Tristan Thompson misses alley oop layup127–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:36Taylor Hendricks makes 25-foot three point jumper (Keyonte George assists)CLE 8 – 7 UTAH · UTAH 25% → 30% +5UTAH 25% → 30%+5 pts
- Q19:20Evan Mobley makes 23-foot three point jumper (Caris LeVert assists)CLE 11 – 7 UTAH · CLE 70% → 75% +5CLE 70% → 75%+5 pts
- Q18:48Caris LeVert makes 25-foot three pointerCLE 14 – 7 UTAH · CLE 75% → 80% +5CLE 75% → 80%+5 pts
- Q15:03Keyonte George makes 26-foot three point jumper (Taylor Hendricks assists)CLE 25 – 17 UTAH · UTAH 14% → 19% +4UTAH 14% → 19%+4 pts
- Q25:48Brice Sensabaugh makes 26-foot step back jumpshotCLE 48 – 42 UTAH · UTAH 17% → 22% +5UTAH 17% → 22%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cavaliers 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -6
- CLE 73%
- Fair odds
- CLE -215
- UTAH +215 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 117.0 – 111.2 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1363 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −27 | −80 | CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups · UTAH: Missing John Collins −12 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | UTAH crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CLE +171 Elo | CLE 72.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 67.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 68.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30112.6 | Points scored | 116.212th of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.7 | Points allowed | 120.629th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+2.8 | Margin | −4.423rd of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.5 | Offense rating | 113.517th of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.6 | Defense rating | 117.829th of 30 |
| 26th of 3098.4 | Pace | 101.79th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 1–927th of 30 |
| 10th of 3021–16 | Road vs home | 20–1819th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
−27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
−80 Elo- John Collins back spasms−12 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 1–0 UTAH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.