Cleveland Cavaliers at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Evan MobleyPoints23
- Darius GarlandAssists7
- Caris LeVertRebounds6
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints26
- Nikola JokicAssists16
- Nikola JokicRebounds18
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–130
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–130
- Q41.1Collin Gillespie defensive rebound101–130
- Q44.1Marcus Morris Sr. misses 25-foot three point jumper101–130
- Q421.1Jalen Pickett makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jay Huff assists)101–130
- Q443.1Marcus Morris Sr. makes 17-foot pullup jump shot101–127
- Q455.1Jalen Pickett makes 21-foot two point shot (Julian Strawther assists)99–127
- Q459.1Julian Strawther defensive rebound99–125
- Q41:02Caris LeVert misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot99–125
- Q41:15Damian Jones defensive rebound99–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:57Marcus Morris Sr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Caris LeVert assists)CLE 42 – 38 DEN · CLE 50% → 58% +8CLE 50% → 58%+8 pts
- Q26:40Michael Porter Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (DeAndre Jordan assists)CLE 42 – 41 DEN · DEN 42% → 50% +8DEN 42% → 50%+8 pts
- Q26:29Caris LeVert makes 26-foot three pointer (Donovan Mitchell assists)CLE 45 – 41 DEN · CLE 50% → 58% +8CLE 50% → 58%+8 pts
- Q23:13Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 27-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)CLE 49 – 53 DEN · DEN 55% → 63% +8DEN 55% → 63%+8 pts
- Q22:46Christian Braun makes 22-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)CLE 50 – 56 DEN · DEN 61% → 68% +8DEN 61% → 68%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -2
- DEN 58%
- Fair odds
- DEN -114
- CLE +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 107.3 – 108.2 DEN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1581 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +32 | −5 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +57 Elo | DEN 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 53.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30112.7 | Points scored | 114.414th of 30 |
| 5th of 30109.4 | Points allowed | 109.97th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+3.3 | Margin | +4.46th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.6 | Offense rating | 116.37th of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.3 | Defense rating | 111.810th of 30 |
| 26th of 3098.4 | Pace | 98.127th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 8th of 3021–15 | Road vs home | 29–82nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
−5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 1–0 DEN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.