Philadelphia 76ers at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Kyle LowryPoints23
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists11
- Nicolas BatumRebounds8
Cavaliers- Georges NiangPoints25
- Darius GarlandAssists12
- Evan MobleyRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–117
- Q40.0Darius Garland enters the game for Isaac Okoro114–117
- Q40.0Cavaliers Full timeout114–117
- Q40.0(00:00.1) [76ers] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)114–117
- Q42.1Jarrett Allen defensive rebound114–117
- Q42.1Tyrese Maxey misses 26-foot step back jumpshot114–117
- Q412.1Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2114–117
- Q412.1Mo Bamba enters the game for Kelly Oubre Jr.114–116
- Q412.1Jarrett Allen enters the game for Georges Niang114–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:33Mo Bamba makes alley oop dunk shot (Tyrese Maxey assists)PHI 109 – 110 CLE · PHI 17% → 35% +18PHI 17% → 35%+18 pts
- Q41:15Evan Mobley makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Darius Garland assists)PHI 109 – 112 CLE · CLE 66% → 85% +20CLE 66% → 85%+20 pts
- Q456.1Kyle Lowry makes 12-foot two point shotPHI 111 – 112 CLE · PHI 12% → 33% +21PHI 12% → 33%+21 pts
- Q439.1Tyrese Maxey makes two point shot (Kyle Lowry assists)PHI 113 – 112 CLE · PHI 31% → 65% +34PHI 31% → 65%+34 pts
- Q428.0Evan Mobley makes 23-foot three point jumper (Darius Garland assists)PHI 113 – 115 CLE · CLE 32% → 87% +55CLE 32% → 87%+55 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cavaliers 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -5
- CLE 70%
- Fair odds
- CLE -216
- PHI +216 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 103.1 – 108.9 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −56 | +13 | PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +147 Elo | CLE 70.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 68.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 68.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30114.1 | Points scored | 112.719th of 30 |
| 9th of 30112.0 | Points allowed | 109.45th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+2.1 | Margin | +3.39th of 30 |
| 14th of 30114.5 | Offense rating | 113.518th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.4 | Defense rating | 110.24th of 30 |
| 18th of 3099.3 | Pace | 98.526th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 15th of 3018–18 | Road vs home | 22–1412th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
−56 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 2–1 CLE in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.