Charlotte Hornets at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Brandon MillerPoints24
- Tre MannAssists5
- Brandon MillerRebounds8
Cavaliers- Jarrett AllenPoints17
- Darius GarlandAssists10
- Jarrett AllenRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game92–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter92–115
- Q410.1shot clock turnover92–115
- Q434.1Nick Smith Jr. makes 13-foot pullup jump shot92–115
- Q445.0Craig Porter makes 26-foot step back jumpshot (Sam Merrill assists)90–115
- Q41:01Damian Jones defensive rebound90–112
- Q41:05Amari Bailey misses two point shot90–112
- Q41:27Damian Jones makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Craig Porter assists)90–112
- Q41:45Bryce McGowens makes driving layup (JT Thor assists)90–110
- Q42:01Craig Porter makes 15-foot pullup jump shot88–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:07Brandon Miller makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tre Mann assists)CHA 23 – 20 CLE · CHA 35% → 43% +7CHA 35% → 43%+7 pts
- Q26:49Marcus Morris Sr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Craig Porter assists)CHA 25 – 27 CLE · CLE 61% → 69% +7CLE 61% → 69%+7 pts
- Q26:07Georges Niang makes 25-foot three point shot (Evan Mobley assists)CHA 27 – 30 CLE · CLE 64% → 71% +7CLE 64% → 71%+7 pts
- Q31:35Georges Niang makes 26-foot three point jumper (Isaac Okoro assists)CHA 63 – 73 CLE · CLE 82% → 89% +7CLE 82% → 89%+7 pts
- Q31:09Tre Mann makes 37-foot three point jumper (Aleksej Pokusevski assists)CHA 66 – 73 CLE · CHA 11% → 18% +7CHA 11% → 18%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cavaliers 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -6.5
- CLE 75%
- Fair odds
- CLE -204
- CHA +204 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 101.2 – 106.6 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1328 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | CLE on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −39 | −46 | CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups · CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +188 Elo | CLE 74.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 66.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 67.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30106.4 | Points scored | 112.620th of 30 |
| 20th of 30116.9 | Points allowed | 109.56th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−10.5 | Margin | +3.19th of 30 |
| 29th of 30107.1 | Offense rating | 113.318th of 30 |
| 28th of 30117.7 | Defense rating | 110.14th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3098.9 | Pace | 98.626th of 30 |
| 25th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 27th of 308–29 | Road vs home | 21–1414th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
−39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
−46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.