Charlotte Hornets at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Miles BridgesPoints27
- Tre MannAssists9
- Nick RichardsRebounds16
Hawks- Dejounte MurrayPoints28
- Dejounte MurrayAssists12
- Clint CapelaRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game91–132
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter91–132
- Q40.0Hornets offensive team rebound91–132
- Q40.2Nick Smith Jr. misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot91–132
- Q414.1shot clock turnover91–132
- Q437.0Bruno Fernando defensive rebound91–132
- Q440.1Nick Smith Jr. misses 20-foot pullup jump shot91–132
- Q447.1Dylan Windler makes 2-foot layup (Trent Forrest assists)91–132
- Q449.0Hawks offensive team rebound91–130
- Q451.2Bruno Fernando misses 26-foot three point jumper91–130
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:30Miles Bridges makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tre Mann assists)CHA 12 – 10 ATL · CHA 41% → 48% +6CHA 41% → 48%+6 pts
- Q16:10Garrison Mathews makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dejounte Murray assists)CHA 16 – 15 ATL · ATL 48% → 54% +7ATL 48% → 54%+7 pts
- Q211:45Grant Williams makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tre Mann assists)CHA 31 – 30 ATL · CHA 39% → 46% +7CHA 39% → 46%+7 pts
- Q211:24Dylan Windler makes 25-foot step back jumpshot (Bogdan Bogdanovic assists)CHA 31 – 33 ATL · ATL 53% → 61% +7ATL 53% → 61%+7 pts
- Q27:29Dejounte Murray makes 25-foot three point jumper (Bruno Fernando assists)CHA 39 – 42 ATL · ATL 56% → 63% +7ATL 56% → 63%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hawks 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -3.5
- ATL 64%
- Fair odds
- ATL -132
- CHA +132 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 109.3 – 111.4 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1346 | 1457 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −24 | −48 | CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups · ATL: Missing Trae Young −40, Jalen Johnson −11 (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −24 | ATL crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ATL +98 Elo | ATL 63.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 56.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30106.6 | Points scored | 119.05th of 30 |
| 19th of 30116.7 | Points allowed | 121.229th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−10.1 | Margin | −2.221st of 30 |
| 29th of 30107.2 | Offense rating | 115.610th of 30 |
| 27th of 30117.4 | Defense rating | 117.729th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.0 | Pace | 102.44th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 27th of 308–28 | Road vs home | 16–1722nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
−24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
−48 Elo- Trae Young left finger−40 Elo
- Jalen Johnson sprained right ankle−11 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHA 2–0 ATL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.